Expectancy Theory[期望理论]
(Vroom)

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基于个体因素的员工绩效表现。 Victor Vroom的Expectancy Theory[期望理论]解析。 (‘64)

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何为期望理论？释义

Victor Vroom的期望理论（Expectancy Theory）的研究范畴是动机与管理。 Vroom的理论假定，人类的行为总是从各种可能方案中进行有意识选择的结果，选择的目的就是为了最大化快乐、最小化痛楚。 Vroom与Edward Lawler、Lyman Porter等人共同认为，员工的劳动行为和他们的个人目标之间的关系并不像从前科学家想象得那么简单。 Vroom意识到雇员的表现根据各自的因素例如个性、技能、知识、经验和能力。

期望理论认为每一个体都为自己设定了不同的人生目标，并对此怀有一定的期望，他们的积极性正因为有期望才被调动了起来。

期望理论的期望值

主观努力与客观绩效之间存在正向相关的关系，
优秀的绩效将会得到相应的奖赏，
这一奖赏使得个体的某一重要需求得到极大满足，
满足需求的热望，又恰恰是个体进行主观努力的力量之源。

Vroom的期望理论依据以下三种信念。

期望理论的信念

效价（Valence）。效价是一个心理学名词，指人们对于行动结果的价值评价（奖赏）。员工所期望的回报既包括外在的如金钱、升职、假期、收益，也包括内在的如满足感。管理人员必须识别员工的需求，并按照员工需求调整奖赏机制。
期望值（Expectancy）。员工们对于所从事工作能否达到某种目标的可能性有不同的期望值和信心程度。管理必须发现什么资源、训练或者监督员工需要。
手段工具（Instrumentality）。 员工们对于期望是否能够真正得到满足的感知，即便他们已经得到了来自上司的保证。所以管理人员必须严格维持薪酬承诺。

Vroom认为，员工在其内心深处，已经将期望值、手段工具与效价三者建立起了关联性，如此，就能产生一股向期望目标前进的激发力量，并带来愉悦，避免痛楚。激发力量的大小可以通过公式来计算：

期望理论公式

Motivation = Valence x Expectancy(Instrumentality)，即激发力量 = 效价 X 期望值（手段工具）

这一公式可以用来揭示、预测：员工的工作满意程度、职业选择、工作可能、工作投入，等等。

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