Scenario Planning

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Que é Scenario Planning? Descrição

Scenario Planning é um modelo que possa ser usado explorar e aprender o futuro em que uma estratégia corporativo é dada forma. Trabalha descrevendo um pequeno número de scenarios, criando histórias como o futuro pode unfold, e como este pode afetar uma edição que confronte o corporaçõ.

O escudo holandês real, um dos primeiros usuários, define scenarios como segue: Os Scenarios são histórias com cuidado crafted sobre o futuro que embodying uma variedade larga das idéias e que integra as em uma maneira que seja communicable e útil. Os Scenarios ajudam-nos ligar incertezas sobre o futuro às decisões que nós devemos fazer hoje.
 

O método do planeamento de scenario trabalha compreendendo a natureza e o impacto das forças dirigindo as mais incertas e as mais importantes que afetam o futuro. É um processo do grupo que incentive a troca do conhecimento e o desenvolvimento da compreensão mais profunda mútua das edições centrais que são importantes para o futuro de seu negócio. O objetivo é criar e craft um número de histórias diverging por forças dirigindo incertas e pesadamente influenciando extrapolating. As histórias, mais os processos para criar-los, têm um alvo duplo: para aumentar o conhecimento das circunstâncias de negócio e para alargar o receptor e a percepção do participant de eventos futuros possíveis. O método é usado o mais extensamente como uma ferramenta de gerência estratégica, mas é usado também para a discussão permitir do grupo sobre um futuro comum.

Etapas em Scenario Planning. Processo

1. Identifique os povos que contribuirão uma escala larga dos perspectives.

2. Entrevistas detalhadas/oficina sobre como os participants vêem deslocamentos grandes vir na sociedade, na economia, na política, na tecnologia, etc.

3. Agrupe (conjunto) estas vistas em testes padrões conectados.

4. O grupo extrai uma lista das prioridades (as mais melhores idéias).

5. Criar os retratos ásperos do futuro, baseados nestas prioridades. Histórias e scenarios ásperos.

6. Adicione um detalhe mais adicional para começar scenarios do impacto. Determine em que maneira cada scenario afetará o corporaçõ.

7. Identifique sinais de advertência adiantados. Coisas que são indicativas para que um scenario particular unfold.

8. Os scenarios são monitorados, avaliados e revistos.

Algumas armadilhas a evitar em Scenario Planning

1. Tratando scenarios como previsões.
2. Construindo os scenarios baseados em uma diferença demasiado simplistic. Como optimistic e pessimistic.
3. Não fazem o scenario global bastante no espaço.
4. Não focalizam os scenarios nas áreas de impacto potencial na empresa.
5. Tratando scenarios como uma ferramenta informativa ou instrutiva melhor que para a formação participative da aprendizagem e/ou da estratégia.
6. Não tendo um processo adequado para acoplar equipes da gerência no processo do planeamento de scenario.
7. Não põe bastante stimulus imaginative no scenario projeta.
8. Não usando um facilitator experiente.

Fórum Fórum de discussões sobre Scenario Planning. Abaixo você pode fazer uma pergunta sobre este tópico, compartilhar suas experiências, relatar um novo desenvolvimento ou explicar algo. Comece um novo tópico sobre Scenario Planning Compartilhe seu conhecimento aqui (ou faça uma pergunta)   Scenario Building Elements Who can help me out with a basic structure for building future scenarios? Literature of theory around this theme is also very welcome. So what elements are relevant to use as a guideline for using fut... 5   3 comentários What is a Scenario? Definition A scenario is a description of a plausible future context in which a firm might find itself. Scenarios are typically presented as a small set of stories about how the surrounding environment might hav... 4   Why Scenario Planning is Important Most companies have their methods for planning - Some good, some not so good. But most don't take time to do effective scenario planning. Do they believe it takes time off from the key activities of m... 2   1 comentários Time Frame in Scenario Planning? A scenario consist of a statement of an end state and a story explaining how the end state has developed, together with the underlying logic of external environment and internal forces in the industry... 2   4 comentários Exploring Possible Strategic Directions It is a very good approach for identify two or more possible directions to judge what is right and what is wrong. By using scenario planning, we can narrow the decision making down to a smaller scope.... 1   Scenario Planning Instruments For the thesis of my MBA study I'm researching the influence of culture on the succesful implementation of scenario planning in organizations. As guideline for my research I'm looking for a theory, me... 1   5 comentários Uses of Scenario Planning What exactly can we use scenario planning for? I mean what are common applications, purposes of scenario planning?... 1   2 comentários Embracing Complexity Scenario Planning is a strategic tool which can be used to understand or even embrace complexity, rather than avoid or neglect or scare away from it.... 1   Decision makers disagree One is always dealing with perceptions. One technique I have found quite useful is to populate a matrix with objective/subjective 'lens' on the one side and finance/non-finance 'impact' on the other. ... 0

Dicas de Especialistas Conhecimentos avançados sobre Scenario Planning (Inglês). Aqui você encontrará conselhos profissionais de especialistas. Defining Feasable / Probable Scenarios Finding Driving Forces for Scenario Planning To investigate potential driving forces, you can perform a PEST analysis (Political, Economic, Society, Technology) or S... Change How Decision-makers See the World The Impact upon Mental Models of Decision-makers A valuable insight by Pierre Wack on his pioneering work at Royal Dutch Shell was that scenarios had to connect with man... Four Bad Practices in Scenario Planning Scenario Planning, Scenaro Thinking, Scenario Analysis Harris (2014) mentions 4 common bad practices that should be avoided when conducting scenario analysis. These are the fo... Describing and Analyzing Driving Forces Scenario Planning Scenarios are caused by trends or driving forces. When analyzing potential trends or driving forces, for them to be rele... What to do after the Scenarios have been Described? The Next Steps to Take... According to Jeremy Kourdi, once you selected a relevant future scenario that you can work through to evaluate your orga... Transformation Scenario Planning Scenario Planning, Strategic Team Collaboration Transformational Scenario Planning is not about adapting to certain possible situations; rather it focuses on the partic... Why Society is More Risky than Before Understanding New Risk Categories, Risk Management In his 1992 book "Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity”, Ulrich Beck describes new risk scenarios that companies have t... How to Build Strategic Agility? 4 Phase Framework of Johnson & Johnson In order to get strategic flexibility you can use the Johnson & Johnson “four-phase framework": 1. “Anticipate” – Ident... Learning via the Case Method Decision-making, Problem-solving The case method in business education has often been criticized, although it can be an appropriate and powerful approach... The Advantages of Group Decision-Making Group Decision-Making The benefits of group decision-making include: - Synergy: Group decisions tend to combine and improve on the knowledge... Ten Commandments for Strategic Forecasters Strategic Forecasting, Strategic Vision, Scenario Planning, Predicting the Future, Wisdom of the Crowds Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner researched forecasting the future in "the Good Judgment Project". The idea behind this pr... Taking Risk Management from Control and Compliance into a Competitive Advantage Strategic Risk Management Since events tend to be repetitive over time, many management experts support the idea that an effective risk management... Align Strategy and Risk Management Performance-Aligned Risk Management In a recent white paper titled "Foundations of GRC: Enhancing Business Performance Through Risk Management", which was p... How to Link Risk Management and Strategy? Strategic Risk Management, Best Practices Firms practicing strategic risk management: 1. Create value by embracing risks, shaping risks, and exploiting flexibili... 3 Causes of Disagreement in Team Decision-making Processes Group Decision-making, Team Decision-making, Reasons for Disagreement, 3 Fs, Group Collaboration According to Freeman and Haskins (2014), there are three main categories of potential root causes for disagreements with... History of Scenario Planning Decision-making - The scenario planning approach was first introduced after World War II, as a tool for military planning. The U.S. Air ... From Scenario Planning to Scenario Thinking and Scenario Learning Scenario Planning Recently you can also encounter the terms scenario thinking, scenario analysis and scenario learning. These terms are re... How to Use Counterintuition to Fight 5 Frequent Decision Making Errors Strategic Decision Making, Dealing with Complexity, Dealing with Uncertainty, Strategy Mauboussin describes five mistakes in decision making that are often made and result in making the wrong decisions. Thes... Narrative-based Scenario Planning Scenario Planning, Strategic Agility, Anti-Fragility Traditional scenario-planning generally provides a bigger picture in which trends and shocks are revealed. Such scenario... Meta-cognition (Meta-thinking) in Scenario Thinking Schools of Thought, Strategic Thinking, Scenario Thinking, Strategic Assumptions, Strategic Reasoning Most businesses are primarily concerned with the type of thinking that tries to make complex problems or interconnected ... The Disadvantages of Group Decision-Making Group Decision-Making The drawbacks of group decision-making include: - Longer time frame: Groups generally need more time to make decisions ... Having more than 1 Team in Scenario Planning Scenario Planning HBR March 2007 has an interesting short article on Coevolutionary War Gaming by Alidade consultants Jeff Cares and Jim M...

Fontes de Informação Várias fontes de informação sobre Scenario Planning. Aqui você encontrará powerpoints, vídeos, notícias, etc. para usar em suas próprias palestras e workshops. Comprehensive Introduction to Scenario Planning Scenario-planning, Storytelling Presentation with comprehensive speaking notes about scenario-planning includes the following sections: 1. Definitions ... How to Improve Strategic Decision Making? Strategic Decision Making, Cognitive Bias, M&A, Corporate Finance In this video Michael Mauboussin, Credit Suisse's Head of Financial Strategies, briefly explains parts of Philip E. Tetl... Scenario Planning and Risk Management in Uncertain Business Enviroment Scenario Planning, Risk Management, Strategic Uncertainty Extensive and detailed presentation. about scenarios, risk and uncertainty. Topics: - Integrated Risk Management Framew... An Explorer's Guide to SP Scenario Planning Guidance and ideas by Shell for those interested in scenario thinking. Contains two parallel streams: one explains the i... Scenario Planning Diagram Exploring, Challenging Future Options Download and edit this 12manage PowerPoint graphic for limited personal, educational and business use. Republishing in ...

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