Scenario Planning

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Scenario Planningは何であるか。 記述

Scenario Planningは企業戦略が形作られる未来を探検し、学ぶのに使用することができるモデルである。 それは少数のシナリオの記述によって物語の創造によって未来がいかに開くかもしれない、そしていかにこれが株式会社に直面する問題に影響を与えるかもしれないか、働く。

次の通り高貴なオランダの貝、最初の採用者の1は、シナリオを定義する: シナリオは色々考えを具体化し、伝染性および有用の方法で統合する未来についての注意深く制作された物語である。 シナリオは私達が私達が今日作らなければならない決定に未来についての不確実性をつなぐのを助ける。
 

シナリオ計画方法は未来に影響を与える最も不確かで、最も重要な原動力の性質そして影響の理解によって働く。 あなたのビジネスの未来にとって重要の中央問題の相互深い理解の知識交換そして開発を奨励するのはグループプロセスである。 目的は外挿法で推定する不確かな、重く影響を及ぼす原動力によっていくつかの分岐物語を創造し、制作することである。 それらを創造するプロセスと物語に、二重目標がある: 景気環境の知識を高め、可能な未来のでき事の受信機そして関係者の認識を両方広げるため。 方法は戦略的な管理ツールとして最も広く利用されているが、また共通の未来についての可能にするな集団討論のために使用される。

Scenario Planningのステップ。 プロセス

1. 見通しの広い範囲を貢献する人々を識別しなさい。

2. 関係者が大きい転位を社会、経済学、政治、技術、等入って来いかにについての見るか広範囲のインタビューか研修会。

3. 接続されたパターンに(集り)これらの意見を分けなさい。

4. グループは優先事項(最もよい考え)のリストを引出す。

5. これらの優先事項に基づいて未来の荒い映像を、創造しなさい。 物語および荒いシナリオ。

6. 影響のシナリオを得るためにそれ以上の細部を加えなさい。 どんな方法で各シナリオが株式会社に影響を与えるか定めなさい。

7. 早期警報信号を識別しなさい。 開くために特定のシナリオのために表している事。

8. シナリオは監視され、評価され、そして見直される。

Scenario Planningで避けるべきあるトラップ

1. シナリオを予測として扱う。
2. 余りに単純化した相違に基づくシナリオを組み立てる。 楽観的および悲観的のような。
3. シナリオを規模で十分に全体的にさせないことを。
4. 企業の潜在的影響の区域のシナリオを集中しないことを。
5. シナリオを情報か教育用具としてよりもむしろparticipative学習および/または作戦の形成のために扱う。
6. シナリオの計画プロセスで経営陣を従事させるための十分なプロセスを持っていない。
7. シナリオの設計に十分な想像的な刺激を入れないことを。
8. ないベテランの世話役を使用して。

フォーラム フォーラムでの議論:Scenario Planning。以下で、このトピックについて質問したり、経験を共有したり、新しい開発を報告したり、何かを説明したりできます. 新しいフォーラムトピックを開始するについてのScenario Planning ここであなたの知識を共有してください（または質問してください）   Scenario Building Elements Who can help me out with a basic structure for building future scenarios? Literature of theory around this theme is also very welcome. So what elements are relevant to use as a guideline for using fut... 5   3コメント What is a Scenario? Definition A scenario is a description of a plausible future context in which a firm might find itself. Scenarios are typically presented as a small set of stories about how the surrounding environment might hav... 4   Why Scenario Planning is Important Most companies have their methods for planning - Some good, some not so good. But most don't take time to do effective scenario planning. Do they believe it takes time off from the key activities of m... 2   1コメント Time Frame in Scenario Planning? A scenario consist of a statement of an end state and a story explaining how the end state has developed, together with the underlying logic of external environment and internal forces in the industry... 2   4コメント Exploring Possible Strategic Directions It is a very good approach for identify two or more possible directions to judge what is right and what is wrong. By using scenario planning, we can narrow the decision making down to a smaller scope.... 1   Scenario Planning Instruments For the thesis of my MBA study I'm researching the influence of culture on the succesful implementation of scenario planning in organizations. As guideline for my research I'm looking for a theory, me... 1   5コメント Uses of Scenario Planning What exactly can we use scenario planning for? I mean what are common applications, purposes of scenario planning?... 1   2コメント Embracing Complexity Scenario Planning is a strategic tool which can be used to understand or even embrace complexity, rather than avoid or neglect or scare away from it.... 1   Decision makers disagree One is always dealing with perceptions. One technique I have found quite useful is to populate a matrix with objective/subjective 'lens' on the one side and finance/non-finance 'impact' on the other. ... 0

エキスパートのヒント Scenario Planningについての高度な洞察（英語）。ここには専門家による専門的なアドバイスがあります。 Defining Feasable / Probable Scenarios Finding Driving Forces for Scenario Planning To investigate potential driving forces, you can perform a PEST analysis (Political, Economic, Society, Technology) or S... Change How Decision-makers See the World The Impact upon Mental Models of Decision-makers A valuable insight by Pierre Wack on his pioneering work at Royal Dutch Shell was that scenarios had to connect with man... Four Bad Practices in Scenario Planning Scenario Planning, Scenaro Thinking, Scenario Analysis Harris (2014) mentions 4 common bad practices that should be avoided when conducting scenario analysis. These are the fo... Describing and Analyzing Driving Forces Scenario Planning Scenarios are caused by trends or driving forces. When analyzing potential trends or driving forces, for them to be rele... What to do after the Scenarios have been Described? The Next Steps to Take... According to Jeremy Kourdi, once you selected a relevant future scenario that you can work through to evaluate your orga... Transformation Scenario Planning Scenario Planning, Strategic Team Collaboration Transformational Scenario Planning is not about adapting to certain possible situations; rather it focuses on the partic... Why Society is More Risky than Before Understanding New Risk Categories, Risk Management In his 1992 book "Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity�, Ulrich Beck describes new risk scenarios that companies have t... How to Build Strategic Agility? 4 Phase Framework of Johnson & Johnson In order to get strategic flexibility you can use the Johnson & Johnson �four-phase framework": 1. �Anticipate� � Ident... Learning via the Case Method Decision-making, Problem-solving The case method in business education has often been criticized, although it can be an appropriate and powerful approach... The Advantages of Group Decision-Making Group Decision-Making The benefits of group decision-making include: - Synergy: Group decisions tend to combine and improve on the knowledge... Ten Commandments for Strategic Forecasters Strategic Forecasting, Strategic Vision, Scenario Planning, Predicting the Future, Wisdom of the Crowds Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner researched forecasting the future in "the Good Judgment Project". The idea behind this pr... Taking Risk Management from Control and Compliance into a Competitive Advantage Strategic Risk Management Since events tend to be repetitive over time, many management experts support the idea that an effective risk management... Align Strategy and Risk Management Performance-Aligned Risk Management In a recent white paper titled "Foundations of GRC: Enhancing Business Performance Through Risk Management", which was p... How to Link Risk Management and Strategy? Strategic Risk Management, Best Practices Firms practicing strategic risk management: 1. Create value by embracing risks, shaping risks, and exploiting flexibili... 3 Causes of Disagreement in Team Decision-making Processes Group Decision-making, Team Decision-making, Reasons for Disagreement, 3 Fs, Group Collaboration According to Freeman and Haskins (2014), there are three main categories of potential root causes for disagreements with... History of Scenario Planning Decision-making - The scenario planning approach was first introduced after World War II, as a tool for military planning. The U.S. Air ... From Scenario Planning to Scenario Thinking and Scenario Learning Scenario Planning Recently you can also encounter the terms scenario thinking, scenario analysis and scenario learning. These terms are re... How to Use Counterintuition to Fight 5 Frequent Decision Making Errors Strategic Decision Making, Dealing with Complexity, Dealing with Uncertainty, Strategy Mauboussin describes five mistakes in decision making that are often made and result in making the wrong decisions. Thes... Narrative-based Scenario Planning Scenario Planning, Strategic Agility, Anti-Fragility Traditional scenario-planning generally provides a bigger picture in which trends and shocks are revealed. Such scenario... Meta-cognition (Meta-thinking) in Scenario Thinking Schools of Thought, Strategic Thinking, Scenario Thinking, Strategic Assumptions, Strategic Reasoning Most businesses are primarily concerned with the type of thinking that tries to make complex problems or interconnected ... The Disadvantages of Group Decision-Making Group Decision-Making The drawbacks of group decision-making include: - Longer time frame: Groups generally need more time to make decisions ... Having more than 1 Team in Scenario Planning Scenario Planning HBR March 2007 has an interesting short article on Coevolutionary War Gaming by Alidade consultants Jeff Cares and Jim M...

の情報源 Scenario Planningに関するさまざまな情報源。ここでは、独自の講義やワークショップで使用するパワーポイント、ビデオ、ニュースなどが見つかります。 Comprehensive Introduction to Scenario Planning Scenario-planning, Storytelling Presentation with comprehensive speaking notes about scenario-planning includes the following sections: 1. Definitions ... How to Improve Strategic Decision Making? Strategic Decision Making, Cognitive Bias, M&A, Corporate Finance In this video Michael Mauboussin, Credit Suisse's Head of Financial Strategies, briefly explains parts of Philip E. Tetl... Scenario Planning and Risk Management in Uncertain Business Enviroment Scenario Planning, Risk Management, Strategic Uncertainty Extensive and detailed presentation. about scenarios, risk and uncertainty. Topics: - Integrated Risk Management Framew... An Explorer's Guide to SP Scenario Planning Guidance and ideas by Shell for those interested in scenario thinking. Contains two parallel streams: one explains the i... Scenario Planning Diagram Exploring, Challenging Future Options Download and edit this 12manage PowerPoint graphic for limited personal, educational and business use. Republishing in ...

研究リンク Scenario Planningに関する他の有用な情報源に自動的にジャンプします。 ニュース 動画 プレゼンテーション   書籍 アカデミック もっと

Scenario Planningに関連している: Chaos Theory  |  Delphi Method  |  System Dynamics  |  PEST analysis  |  Stakeholder Analysis  |  stakeholderの地図を描くこと  |  Strategic Risk Management  |  Force Field Analysis  |  Real Options  |  Mind Mapping  |  Brainstorming  |  Analogical Strategic Reasoning  |  Plausibility Theory  |  Game Theory  |  Root Cause Analysis  |  Dialectical Inquiry  |  OODA Loop  |  ContingencyTheory  |  Six Thinking Hats

経営ハブに戻る: コミュニケーションとスキル |  方針決定と評価 |  マーケティングと販売   |  戦略とイノベーション

より多くの方法、モデル、理論