ماذا يكون تخطيط السيناريو ؟ الوصف
.تخطيط السيناريو نموذج يمكن أن يستعمل لإستكشاف وتعلم المستقبل الذي فيه تشكل إستراتيجية شركة
وشركة شل الهولندية ااحد أول المتبنين، والتى عرفت السيناريوهات كالتالي:
السيناريوهات تصنع القصص بعناية حول المستقبل وتجسد انواع مختلفة من الأفكار وتكاملها بطريقة ما قابلة للاتصال ومفيدة. السيناريوهات تساعدنا لربط تخوفنا من المستقبل مع القرارات التى يجب أن نصدرها اليوم.
طريقة تخطيط السيناريو تعمل بفهم الطبيعة وتأثير القوى الدافعة المجهولة والأكثر أهمية التى تؤثر على المستقبل.
وهى مجموعة عمليات تشجع تبادل المعرفة وتطوير الفهم الأعمق المتبادل للقضايا المركزية المهمة لمستقبل عملك. إن الطريقة تستعمل على نحو واسع كأداة إدارة إستراتيجية، لكنها تستعمل أيضا لتمكين مناقشة المجموعة حول مستقبل مشترك.
خطوات تخطيط السيناريو. العملية
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عرف الناس الذين سيساهمون فى تشكيل واسع لوجهات النظر
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المقابلات الشاملة / ورشة عمل حول رؤية المشاركين لتغيرات كبيرة تأتى في المجتمع، الاقتصاد، السياسة، التقنية، الخ.
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اجمع (تكتلاتد) وجهات النظر إلى أنماط مرتبطة.
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اجمع رسوم قائمة الأولويات وافضل الأفكار.
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أصنع صور بخطوط عريضة للمستقبل،
مستندة على هذه الأولويات للقصص والسيناريوهات.
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أضفت تفصيل بعيدة أن يحصل تأثير صدمة سيناريوهات. وحدد فى أى طريق السيناريو سيؤثر على الشركة.
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حدد إشارات إنذار مبكر.
الأشياء التي لها دلالية لسيناريو معين.
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السيناريوهات الى روجعت وقيمت وروقبت.
بعض الفخاخ يجب تفاديها في تخطيط السيناريو
- معالجة السيناريوهات كتوقعات.
- بناء السيناريوهات استناداً على اختلافات بسيطة جدا.
مثل التفاؤل والتشاؤم.
- إخفاق في جعل السيناريو العالمي بما فيه الكفاية في المجال.
- إخفاق في تركيز السيناريوهات في مناطق التأثير المحتملة على المشروع.
- معالجة السيناريوهات كأداة معلوماتية أو تعليمية بدلا من تعلم المشاركة و/ أو تشكيل إستراتيجية.
- عدم أخذ التشغيل الكافى من فرق الإدارة في عملية تخطيط السيناريو.
- الإخفاق في وضع المحفز الكافي لتصميم السيناريو.
- لا يستعمل خبرات سهلة.
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 هل سمعتم عن النظرية التي تقود الس
وهل سمعتم عن نظرية التنبؤ بما لا يمكن التنبأ به
العلم يتطور وأحيانا يكون التطور كبير ومذهل
العالم كان يظن أن الأبعاد 3
ثم أتى آينشتاين وب...
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Exploring Possible Strategic Directions
It is a very good approach for identify two or more possible directions to judge what is right and what is wrong. By using scenario planning, we can narrow the decision making down to a smaller scope. Usually, before taking action to get a strategy p...
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Scenario Building Elements
Who can help me out with a basic structure for building future scenarios? Literature of theory around this theme is also very welcome. So what elements are relevant to use as a guideline for using future scenarios?
Thanks in advance....
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Why Scenario Planning is Important
Most companies have their methods for planning - Some good, some not so good. But most don't take time to do effective scenario planning. Do they believe it takes time off from the key activities of making money?
It's important that scenarios ar...
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Scenario Planning Instruments
For the thesis of my MBA study I'm researching the influence of culture on the succesful implementation of scenario planning in organizations. As guideline for my research I'm looking for a theory, method, instrument or model for scenario planning or...
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Uses of Scenario Planning
What exactly can we use scenario planning for? I mean what are common applications, purposes of scenario planning?...
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Decision makers disagree
One is always dealing with perceptions. One technique I have found quite useful is to populate a matrix with objective/subjective 'lens' on the one side and finance/non-finance 'impact' on the other. The subjective and non-financial quadrant is where...
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What is a Scenario? Definition
A scenario is a description of a plausible future context in which a firm might find itself. Scenarios are typically presented as a small set of stories about how the surrounding environment might have evolved into the future. They are produced by ca...
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Time Frame in Scenario Planning?
A scenario consist of a statement of an end state and a story explaining how the end state has developed, together with the underlying logic of external environment and internal forces in the industry / firm.
Did a write up on scenario planning ...
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Embracing Complexity
Scenario Planning is a strategic tool which can be used to understand or even embrace complexity, rather than avoid or neglect or scare away from it....
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تخطيط السيناريو المجموعة ذات الاهتمام المشترك
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تخطيط السيناريو تعلم & احداث
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Defining Feasable / Probable Scenarios
To investigate potential driving forces, you can perform a PEST analysis (Political, Economic, Society, Technology) or STEEPLE VARIANT (id + Legal, Et...
Usage, application:Finding Driving Forces for Scenario Planning
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Change How Decision-makers See the World
A valuable insight by Pierre Wack on his pioneering work at Royal Dutch Shell was that scenarios had to connect with managers' assumptions, beliefs...
Usage, application:The Impact upon Mental Models of Decision-makers
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Describing and Analyzing Driving Forces
Scenarios are caused by trends or driving forces. When analyzing potential trends or driving forces, for them to be relevant they must have at least o...
Usage, application:Scenario Planning
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Four Bad Practices in Scenario Planning
Harris (2014) mentions 4 common bad practices that should be avoided when conducting scenario analysis. These are the following:
1. Mistaking ...
Usage, application:Scenario Planning, Scenaro Thinking, Scenario Analysis
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What to do after the Scenarios have been Described?
According to Jeremy Kourdi, once you selected a relevant future scenario that you can work through to evaluate your organizations future, you should ...
Usage, application:The Next Steps to Take...
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Transformation Scenario Planning
Transformational Scenario Planning is not about adapting to certain possible situations; rather it focuses on the participants (actors) to change them...
Usage, application:Scenario Planning, Strategic Team Collaboration
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Why Society is More Risky than Before
In his 1992 book "
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How to Build Strategic Agility?
In order to get strategic flexibility you can use the Johnson & Johnson four-phase framework":
1. Anticipate Identify change d...
Usage, application:4 Phase Framework of Johnson & Johnson
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Learning via the Case Method
The case method in business education has often been criticized, although it can be an appropriate and powerful approach for situations in whic...
Usage, application:Decision-making, Problem-solving
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The Advantages of Group Decision-Making
The benefits of group decision-making include:
- Synergy: Group decisions tend to combine and improve on the knowledge of the grou...
Usage, application:Group Decision-Making
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Taking Risk Management from Control and Compliance into a Competitive Advantage
Since events tend to be repetitive over time, many management experts support the idea that an effective risk management policy strongly takes into...
Usage, application:Strategic Risk Management
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Align Strategy and Risk Management
In a recent white paper titled "Foundations of GRC: Enhancing Business Performance Through Risk Management", which was published by Corporate Integrit...
Usage, application:Performance-Aligned Risk Management
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How to Link Risk Management and Strategy?
Firms practicing strategic risk management:
1. Create value by embracing risks, shaping risks, and exploiting flexibility to deliver uniqu...
Usage, application:Strategic Risk Management, Best Practices
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3 Causes of Disagreement in Team Decision-making Processes
According to Freeman and Haskins (2014), there are three main categories of potential root causes for disagreements within teams. When such a disagree...
Usage, application:Group Decision-making, Team Decision-making, Reasons for Disagreement, 3 Fs, Group Collaboration
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History of Scenario Planning
- The scenario planning approach was first introduced after World War II, as a tool for military planning. The U.S. Air Force searched for what its en...
Usage, application:Decision-making
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From Scenario Planning to Scenario Thinking and Scenario Learning
Recently you can also encounter the terms scenario thinking, scenario analysis and scenario learning. These terms are reflecting the change in perspec...
Usage, application:Scenario Planning
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How to Use Counterintuition to Fight 5 Frequent Decision Making Errors
Mauboussin describes five mistakes in decision making that are often made and result in making the wrong decisions. These five mistakes are:
1...
Usage, application:Strategic Decision Making, Dealing with Complexity, Dealing with Uncertainty, Strategy
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Narrative-based Scenario Planning
Traditional scenario-planning generally provides a bigger picture in which trends and shocks are revealed. Such scenarios are effective in detecting t...
Usage, application:Scenario Planning, Strategic Agility, Anti-Fragility
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Meta-cognition (Meta-thinking) in Scenario Thinking
Most businesses are primarily concerned with the type of thinking that tries to make complex problems or interconnected and multidimensional issues ma...
Usage, application:Schools of Thought, Strategic Thinking, Scenario Thinking, Strategic Assumptions, Strategic Reasoning
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The Disadvantages of Group Decision-Making
The drawbacks of group decision-making include:
- Longer time frame: Groups generally need more time to make decisions than individ...
Usage, application:Group Decision-Making
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Having more than 1 Team in Scenario Planning
HBR March 2007 has an interesting short article on Coevolutionary War Gaming by Alidade consultants Jeff Cares and Jim Miskel. They stress the impo...
Usage, application:Scenario Planning
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أخبار
السيناريو تخطيط
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أخبار
السيناريو اسراتيجة
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فيديو
السيناريو تخطيط
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فيديو
السيناريو اسراتيجة
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عروض
السيناريو تخطيط
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عروض
السيناريو اسراتيجة
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ويكيبيديا
السيناريو تخطيط
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ويكيبيديا
السيناريو اسراتيجة
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يرتبط إلى تخطيط السيناريو: Chaos Theory نظرية الفوضى | Delphi Method طريقة دلفي | System Dynamics ديناميكية النظم | PEST Analysis تحليل بست | Stakeholder Analysis اصحاب المصالح | Stakeholder Mapping مخطط اصحاب المصالح | Strategic Risk Management Slywotzky ادارة المخاطر الاستراتيجيّة لسلووتزكي | Force Field Analysis تحليل مجال القوى | Real Options البدائل الحقيقية | Mind Mapping خريطة العقل | Brainstorming استحثاث الافكار - التفاكر - عصف الذهن | Analogical Strategic Reasoning استنتاج الاستراتيجية القياسية | Plausibility Theory نظرية الاحتماليّة | Game Theory نظرية اللعبة | Root Cause Analysis تحليل السبب الجذرى | Dialectical Inquiry التحقيق بالجدال | OODA Loop حلقة الملاحظة, التكيف, القرار, والتصرف | Contingency Theory نظرية الاحتمالات | Six Thinking Hats قبعات التفكير الستة
العودة لقائمة الادارة: الاتصال و المهارات | اتخاذ القرار و التقييم | التسويق | الاستراتيجية
العديد من مناهج و نماذج و نظريات فى الادارة
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Special Interest Group Leader
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