Real Options[实物期权] （Luehrman）

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总结

什么是实物期权？释义

在公司面临不确定性的市场环境下，实物期权的价值来源于公司战略决策的相应调整。每一个公司都是通过不同的投资组合，确定自己的实物期权，并对其进行管理、运作，从而为股东创造价值。实物期权法应用金融期权理论，给出动态管理的定量价值，从而将不确定性转变成企业的优势。

最初用金融期权理论来审视战略投资的想法源于Timothy A. Luehrman发表在哈佛商业评论上的两篇文章：《视投资机会为实物期权：从数字出发》（Investment Opportunities as Real Options:Getting Started on the Numbers，1998年7-8月刊）及《实物期权投资组合战略》（Strategy as a Portfolio of Real Options，1998年9-10月刊）。在后一篇文章中，Luehrman写道， “用金融观点来看，企业投资更似一系列的期权，而不是稳定的现金流”。

实物期权的应用。优点

当价值评估包含进一系列显著的不确定因素时，实物期权的不确定性、灵活性和可调整性则具有巨大的价值，因此，实物期权法的运用非常重要。即便是对于一般性的战略决策，实物期权也必须融入战略投资的考虑范畴。

实物期权的公式演算

实物期权用到的主要公式是Black-Scholes期权定价模型，期权的价值由以下各变量决定：

失效期（期权期限）。
不确定性程度。
获取期权的成本。
与一次性付清相比，潜在的现金流损失。
无风险利率。
未来现金流的预期现值。

通过将这些变量因素引入决策过程，实物期权法使企业能够将不确定因素转变为企业优势，同时将投资风险限定在一定范围内。

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实物期权论坛。

Applicability of Real Options in Oil and Gas Field Development
How to use the real option technique for the appraisal of oil & gas field development projects? (...)

4条评论

Real Options: Measures to Cut Costs
The problem with strategic cost cutting is it is bounded from below by zero. A crisis to one is an opportunity to anothe (...)

Real Options Applied to Rapid Labour Mobilization
In some industries, the speed of mobilization of labour coupled with the ready availability of skilled labour is a deter (...)

开始一个新的论坛主题关于实物期权。

最佳实践

关于实物期权的最高评价的讨论主题。在这里你会找到最有价值的思路和切实可行的建议。

专家提示

关于Real Options（英语）的高级见解。在这里，您将找到专家的专业建议。

	Key Behaviors of Innovative Organizations Innovation Management, Culture Change, Organizational Change, Innovative Culture, Organizational Culture Many large-scale attempts to make organizations more innovative are experiencing organizational inertia, barriers and/or (...)
	How to Become a Self-tuning Enterprise: Advanced Experimenters Organizational Agility, Strategic Agility, Real Options, Emergent Strategy In an HBR article of June 2015, Reeves, Zeng and Venjara argue there's a new way to apply algorithmic principles that en (...)
	How to Design Experiments to Support Decision-making on Strategic Innovations Strategic Innovation, Strategic Decision-making, Strategic Experimenting, Experiments, Strategic Testing, Innovation Tes The probability of success of a major innovation is difficult to assess. Statistics and other datasets only provide info (...)
	How to Link Risk Management and Strategy? Strategic Risk Management, Best Practices Firms practicing strategic risk management: 1. Create value by embracing risks, shaping risks, and exploiting flexibili (...)
	Align Strategy and Risk Management Performance-Aligned Risk Management In a recent white paper titled "Foundations of GRC: Enhancing Business Performance Through Risk Management", which was p (...)
	Taking Risk Management from Control and Compliance into a Competitive Advantage Strategic Risk Management Since events tend to be repetitive over time, many management experts support the idea that an effective risk management (...)
	Why Society is More Risky than Before Understanding New Risk Categories, Risk Management In his 1992 book "Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity�, Ulrich Beck describes new risk scenarios that companies have t (...)
	Real Options and Brand Value Exploiting Real Options A brand can be considered as a feature that allows a firm to gain a unitary profit margin higher than those of products (...)

信息来源

有关实物期权的各种信息来源。在这里，您将找到Powerpoint，视频，新闻等可用于您自己的讲座和讲习班。

	Scenario Planning and Risk Management in Uncertain Business Enviroment Scenario Planning, Risk Management, Strategic Uncertainty Extensive and detailed presentation. Topics: - Integrated Risk Management Framework - Strategic Management Framework (...)
	Important Issues Involving Real Options Real Options, Capital Budgeting This paper by Gordon Sick and Andrea Gamba provides an introduction to real options, as well as highlights some importan (...)
	The Six Basic Questions of Risk Management: Introduction to Risk Management Initial Understanding of Risk Management, Risk Management Introduction Managing risk is essentially a process of asking and answering six relatively easy questions no matter what setting (per (...)
	Financial Flexibility Option Valuing financial flexibility This model estimates the value of financial flexibility, i.e, the maintenance of excess debt capacity or back-up financi (...)
	Delay Option Valuing delay option This model estimates the value of the option to dealy in an investment project. By Aswath Damodaran." (...)
	Expand Option Valuing expand option This model estimates the value of the option to expand in an investment project. Modified, it can also be used to assess (...)
	Rules of Thumb in Real Options Analysis Real Options Analysis In this normative paper, Giuseppe Alesii derives payback period (PBP) and internal rate of return (IRR) in the presence (...)
	Abandoning Option Valuing abandoning option This model estimates the value of the option to abandon a project or investment. By Aswath Damodaran. (...)