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According to Collins & Michalski, "something is plausible if it is conceptually supported by prior knowledge". The Plausibility Theory of Wolfgang Spohn (1985-), Collins & Michalski (reasoning, 1989), Lemaire & Fayol (arithmetic problem solving, 1995), Connell & Keane (cognitive model of plausibility, 2002) provides new insights into decision-making with risks that can't be known. Plausibility is an ineluctable phenomenon of everyday life and ubiquitous. However, it was ignored in cognitive science for a long time, and treated only as an operational variable, rather than being explained or studied in itself.
Until the arrival of the plausibility theory, the common theory which was used by scientists to explain and predict decision-making, was Bayesian statistics. Named for Thomas Bayes, an 18th-century English minister. Bayes developed rules for weighing the likelihood of different events and their expected outcomes. Bayesian statistics were popularized in the 1960s by Howard Raiffa for usage in business environments. According to Bayesian theory, managers make decisions, and managers should make decisions, based on a calculation of the probabilities of all the possible outcomes of a situation. By weighing the value of each outcome by the probability and summing the totals, Bayesian decision makers calculate "expected values" for a decision that must be taken. If the expected value is positive, then the decision should be accepted; if it is negative, it should be avoided.
Limitations of Bayesian statistics
At first sight, this may seem like an orderly working method. However unfortunately, the Bayesian way of explaining decisions faces at least two phenomena that are difficult to explain:
Both of these phenomena can be dealt with if the Bayesian calculation of "Expected Value" is replaced by the "Risk Threshold" of the Plausibility Theory. Like its predecessor, the Plausibility Theory assesses the range of possible outcomes, but focuses on the probability of hitting a threshold point - such as a net loss - relative to an acceptable risk. For example: a normally profitable decision is rejected if there is a higher than 2% risk of making a (major) loss. Clearly, plausibility can resolve both weaknesses of Bayesian thinking: the tendency of managers to avoid unacceptable downside risks, and the tendency of managers to avoid taking risks that can't be known.
Typical examples of the application of plausibility theory are the new Basel II rules for capital allocation in the financial services industry.
Compare with Plausibility Theory: Real Options | Chaos Theory | Strategic Risk Management | Credit Risk Management | Scenario Planning | Analogical Strategic Reasoning | Root Cause Analysis | CAPM | Dialectical Inquiry | Theory of Constraints | Pyramid Principle
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