Trajectories of Industry Change[产业变革轨迹]
(McGahan)

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产业变革轨迹模型是用来描述产业如何变革， 其创始人是波士顿大学管理学院教授Anita M. McGahan， 她的这一产业变革轨迹模型首次发表在2004年10月号的《哈佛商业评论》上。

McGahan在文章中指出，除非你能够了解整个产业正在进行怎样的变革，否则你就无法在组织内部进行睿智的投资。 了解产业变革看似容易，但这样的认知并非唾手可得。 许多公司经常误解一些变革的线索，从而导致错误结论。

产业为何演变

根据Mcgahan的研究，产业之所以要不断演进源于两种退化威胁：

• 一种是对产业核心业务活动的威胁。 即对某种产业一向赖以获取利润的核心业务活动产生弱化、甚至淘汰的威胁。
• 一种是对产业核心资产的威胁。 即对某种产业有效开展核心业务活动所依存的耐用资源，包括知识、品牌等无形资产产生贬值、甚至失去价值的威胁。

产业如何变革

以上两种威胁界定了产业的变革轨迹，使产业依循四种变革轨迹之一来演进：

1. 彻底型。 当产业的核心资产与核心活动均遭受淘汰威胁时，该产业则经历一次彻底的变革。 建议：
   • 把握平衡好企业的经营活动。 追求短期利润，减少长远投资。
   • 评估核心资产的贬值速度。 于竞争地位正逐渐削弱的领域辨寻仍然可以保存竞争优势的领域。
2. 渐进型。 当产业的核心资产与核心活动均未遭到伤害时，该产业则经历渐进式变革。 建议：
   • 围绕互为关联的核心活动构建产业竞争防御系统，这一系统之所以产生防御效果不是因为其难以理解或难以复制，而是因为它对利润产生的复合影响。 做成产业内部最大的企业。
3. 创造型。 创造型变革发生在产业核心资产遭受威胁，而核心活动仍然稳定之时。 建议：
   • 评估核心资产的贬值速度。 于竞争地位正逐渐削弱的领域辨寻仍然可以保存竞争优势的领域。
4. 中间型。 中间型的变革则是发生在核心活动遭受威胁，而核心资产仍保有创造价值的能力之时。 建议：
   • 把握平衡好企业的经营活动。 追求短期利润，减少长远投资。

产业变革轨迹一般会持续数十年。 产业变革往往是一项太过昂贵的投资，而不值得去做。 替代之法是，组织应该重新配置各项资源以实现虽然较低但能够持续的创收，同时培育将那些与企业核心活动、核心资产关联度不高的活动、资源去除出去的能力。 系统地分析企业置身的产业环境确实不易，但其回报也是丰厚的： 你将做出更好的战略决策。

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比较： Disruptive Innovation[颠覆性创新]  |  Forget Borrow Learn[遗忘借用学习法]  |  BCG Matrix[BCG矩阵]  |  Five Forces[五力模式]  |  Diamond Model[钻石模型]  |  BPR[企业流程重组]  |  McKinsey Matrix[麦肯锡矩阵]  |  Core Competence[核心竞争力]  |  Profit Pools[利润池]  |  Product Life Cycle[产品生命周期]  |  ADL Matrix[ADL矩阵]  |  Bass Diffusion Model[巴斯扩散模型]  |  SWOT Analysis[SWOT分析]  |  Benchmarking[标杆分析]  |  Positioning[定位]

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