System Dynamics[系统动力学]
Systems Thinking[系统思考]

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什么是系统思考？ 释义

系统思考（Systems Thinking）是研究和管理复杂反馈系统的一种方法，常见于企业系统或其他社会系统。 事实上，在现实当中，它已经被广泛用于各类反馈系统。

系统动力学与系统思考的概念相似，但前者强调运用计算机仿真工具。

在这里，系统意味着由一组独立的事物形成的一个统一模式。 反馈则指X影响Y，然后Y反作用于X的情形。 在X、Y 之间，可能存在着一种因果关系链。 仅仅单独研究X对Y的影响关系，或Y对X的影响关系，是不可能对系统的行为模式做出正确预测的。 必须对整个系统进行研究，才能够得出正确的结果。

什么是系统动力学？

系统动力学（System Dynamics）以系统思考维理论基础，但更进一步，融进了计算机仿真模型。 系统动力学研究起源于美国麻省理工学院Jay W. Forrester教授的名著《工业动力学》。由于初期它主要应用于工业企业管理，故称为“工业动力学；后来，随着该学科的发展，其应用范围日益扩大，遍及经济社会等各类系统，故改称为系统动力学。

系统动力学法的步骤

1. 找出问题，
2. 对问题产生的原因形成动态假设（Dynamic Hypothsis），
3. 从问题根源出发，建立计算机仿真模型系统。
4. 对模型进行测试，确保现实中的行为能够再现于计算机模型系统，
5. 设计、测试各选择性方案，减少问题。
6. 实施方案。

通常，这些步骤在执行过程中需要不断回顾和提炼，有时候需要回到上一步去。 例如，第一步找出的问题，到了后来也许会发现只是一个更为严重问题的征兆而已。

系统动力学的应用

• 战略和企业规划
• 业务流程设计
• 公共管理与政策制定
• 生物和医学模型
• 能源与环境
• 自然科学和社会科学的理论发展
• 动态决策
• 复杂的非线性动力学

参考书： John Sterman -  Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking.

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比较：  Gestalt Theory[格式塔理论]  |  Strategy Dynamics[战略动力学]  |  Soft Systems Methodology[软系统方法论]  |  Scenario Planning[情境规划]  |  Analogical Strategic Reasoning[战略类推]  |  Five Disciplines[五项修炼]  |  OODA loop  |  Game Theory[博奕论]  |  Spiral Dynamics[螺旋动力学]  |  Business Process Simulation[商业流程仿真]  |  Quality Function Deployment[质量功能展开]

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