System Dynamics[系统动力学]
Systems Thinking[系统思考]

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摘要,论坛,最佳做法,专家提示和信息来源。


什么是系统思考? 释义

系统思考(Systems Thinking)是研究和管理复杂反馈系统的一种方法,常见于企业系统或其他社会系统。 事实上,在现实当中,它已经被广泛用于各类反馈系统。

系统动力学与系统思考的概念相似,但前者强调运用计算机仿真工具。


在这里,系统意味着由一组独立的事物形成的一个统一模式。 反馈则指X影响Y,然后Y反作用于X的情形。XY 之间,可能存在着一种因果关系链。 仅仅单独研究XY的影响关系,或YX的影响关系,是不可能对系统的行为模式做出正确预测的。 必须对整个系统进行研究,才能够得出正确的结果。


什么是系统动力学?

系统动力学(System Dynamics)以系统思考维理论基础,但更进一步,融进了计算机仿真模型。 系统动力学研究起源于美国麻省理工学院Jay W. Forrester教授的名著《工业动力学》。由于初期它主要应用于工业企业管理,故称为“工业动力学;后来,随着该学科的发展,其应用范围日益扩大,遍及经济社会等各类系统,故改称为系统动力学。


系统动力学法的步骤

  1. 找出问题,
  2. 对问题产生的原因形成动态假设(Dynamic Hypothsis),
  3. 从问题根源出发,建立计算机仿真模型系统。
  4. 对模型进行测试,确保现实中的行为能够再现于计算机模型系统,
  5. 设计、测试各选择性方案,减少问题。
  6. 实施方案。

通常,这些步骤在执行过程中需要不断回顾和提炼,有时候需要回到上一步去。 例如,第一步找出的问题,到了后来也许会发现只是一个更为严重问题的征兆而已。


系统动力学的应用

  • 战略和企业规划
  • 业务流程设计
  • 公共管理与政策制定
  • 生物和医学模型
  • 能源与环境
  • 自然科学和社会科学的理论发展
  • 动态决策
  • 复杂的非线性动力学

参考书: John Sterman -  Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking. -


系统动力学与系统思考 小组


小组 (7名成员)

系统动力学与系统思考论坛  

关于以下三个最新主题:系统动力学与系统思考。


🔥 全系統思考:一體的動態系統
The one whole university is the core concept of systems thinking. Note that Systems Thinking is the systemic approach (...)
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Soft, Hard and Viable Systems
Three systems methods are normally used: 1. Soft systems method - complex messy situations 2. Hard systems method- dif (...)
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Systems Thinking Schools and Approaches
- PLANNING SCHOOL - systems thinking is a holistic approach to planning complex systems. Pioneers of this approach inclu (...)
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System Archetypes Overview
Systems archetypes are models that describe patterns of organization that keep recurring. They are helpful to show, expl (...)
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Nonlinear Dynamical Systems
Nonlinear dynamical systems can be linearized, if the relationship between elements of this is information. To formaliz (...)
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System Archetype 10: Growth and Underinvestment
Description of Growth and Underinvestment One of the System Archetypes is "Growth and Underinvestment". This archetype (...)
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System Archetype 2: Limits to Growth
Description of Limits to Growth One of the System Archetypes is "Limits to Growth". This archetype is a systematic repr (...)
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System Archetype 3: Shifting the Burden
Description of Shifting the Burden One of the System Archetypes is "Shifting the Burden". In this type of organizationa (...)
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System Archetype 4: Shifting the Burden to the Intervenor
Description of Shifting the Burden to the Intervenor One of the System Archetypes is "Shifting the Burden to the Interv (...)
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System Archetype 5: Eroding Goals
Description of Eroding Goals One of the System Archetypes is "Eroding Goals". This archetype shows and explains how hi (...)
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System Archetype 6: Escalation
Description of Escalation One of the System Archetypes is "Escalation". This archetype tells us how the performance of (...)
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System Archetype 7: Success to the Successful
Description of Success to the Successful One of the System Archetypes is "Success to the Successful". According to this (...)
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System Archetype 8: Tragedy of the Commons
Description of Tragedy of the Commons One of the System Archetypes is "Tragedy of the Commons". This archetype tells us (...)
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System Archetype 9: Fixes that Fail
Description of Fixes that Fail One of the System Archetypes is "Fixes that Fail". A solution to a problem which is very (...)
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System Archetype 1: Balancing Process with Delay
Description of Balancing Process with Delay One of the System Archetypes is "Balancing Process with Delay". It is perha (...)
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系统动力学与系统思考最佳实践

在这里你会找到最有价值的思路和切实可行的建议。


🥇 Complexity in Systems Approach
Complexity exists due to a multitude of worldviews held by organisational members and external stakeholders and the cult (...)
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🥈 Value of System Approach
What value does the system approach have to understanding and analyzing behaviour in oganisations? (...)
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🥉 Systems Thinking is Considering Issues Holistically
Systems Methodology can aid our analysis of organisations because its key assumption is to consider issues holistically. (...)
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Strategy > SD > Performance?
Could we use System Dynamics to assess if a firm's strategy is responsible for its performance? (...)
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System Dynamics & Systems Thinking专家提示(英语)

在这里,您将找到专家的专业建议。


Complex Adaptive Systems

Organizational Theory (...)
   
 
 
 

Structure your Organization at the Edge of Chaos

Organizational Development (...)
   
 
 
 

How to Use Counterintuition to Fight 5 Frequent Decision Making Errors

Strategic Decision Making, Dealing with Complexity, Dealing with Uncertainty, Strategy (...)
   
 
 
 

Complexity Principles

Organizational theory (...)
   
 
 
 
系统动力学与系统思考信息来源

在这里,您将找到Powerpoint,视频,新闻等可用于您自己的讲座和讲习班。



比较:  Gestalt Theory[格式塔理论]  |  Strategy Dynamics[战略动力学]  |  Soft Systems Methodology[软系统方法论]  |  Scenario Planning[情境规划]  |  Analogical Strategic Reasoning[战略类推]  |  Five Disciplines[五项修炼]  |  OODA loop  |  Game Theory[博奕论]  |  Spiral Dynamics[螺旋动力学]  |  Business Process Simulation[商业流程仿真]  |  Quality Function Deployment[质量功能展开]


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