Exponential Smoothing

Knowledge Center

Large Scale Statistical Forecasting. Explanation of Exponential Smoothing.

Nobody can really look into the future. However modern statistical methods, econometric models and Business Intelligence software can indeed to some extent help companies forecast and estimate what is going to happen in the future.

The Exponential Smoothing model

The Exponential Smoothing (ESM) model uses a weighted average of past and current values, adjusting weight on current values to account for the effects of swings in the data, such as seasonality. Using an alpha term (between 0-1), you can adjust the sensitivity of the smoothing effects. ESM is often used on Large Scale Statistical Forecasting problems, because it is both robust and easy to apply.

ESM is a popular scheme to create a smoothed Time Series. Whereas in Single Moving Averages the past observations are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights if the observation gets older. In other words: recent observations are given more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

In the case of moving averages, the weights assigned to the observations are the same and are equal to 1/N. In Exponential Smoothing, however, there are one or more smoothing parameters which must be determined or estimated. These choices determine the weights assigned to the observations.

Special Interest Group - Exponential Smoothing

Special Interest Group (5 members)

Forum - Exponential Smoothing  

In this forum you will find recent interesting discussions.

Best Practices - Exponential Smoothing

Here you will find the most valuable discussions from the past.

Expert Tips - Exponential Smoothing

Here you will find high-quality advice from experts.

Resources - Exponential Smoothing

Here you will find powerpoint presentations, micro-learning videos and further information sources.

4 Exponential Smoothing Method Variants

When to use What Formula? Examples. PROs and CONs....

News about Exponential Smoothing


News about Statistical Analysis


Videos about Exponential Smoothing


Videos about Statistical Analysis


Presentations about Exponential Smoothing


Presentations about Statistical Analysis


Books about Exponential Smoothing


Books about Statistical Analysis


More about Exponential Smoothing


More about Statistical Analysis


Compare also: Regression Analysis  |  Dynamic Regression  |  ARIMA  |  Operations Research  |  Game Theory  |  Business Intelligence  |  Analytical CRM

Return to Management Hub: Finance & Investing  |  Marketing

More Management Methods, Models and Theory

Special Interest Group Leader

You here? Sign up for free


About 12manage | Advertising | Link to us / Cite us | Privacy | Suggestions | Terms of Service
© 2019 12manage - The Executive Fast Track. V15.2 - Last updated: 19-11-2019. All names ™ of their owners.