Bass Diffusion Model[巴斯扩散模型]

知识中心

摘要，论坛，最佳做法，专家提示和信息来源。

欢迎来到知识中心“革新”。下面的知识这里收集：

摘要
特别兴趣小组
论坛
最佳实践
专家提示
信息来源

立即注册。免费。

登入

总结

针对创新产品、技术的采用和扩散，Frank M. Bass提出的巴斯扩散模型（Bass Diffusion Model）及其扩展理论，常被用作市场分析工具，对新产品、新技术需求进行预测。作为诸多市场工具中的一种，巴斯扩散模型的主要功能是对新开发的消费者耐用品的市场购买数量进行描述和预测。

许多创新经验已经显示，新方法、新概念的市场扩散过程完全可以用巴斯公式来表达：

低音扩散公式

巴斯扩散模型的参数

巴斯扩散模型引入三个参量来预测Nt（消费者在第n期购买该产品的数量）：

m = 市场潜力，即潜在使用者总数。
p = 创新系数(外部影响)，即尚未使用该产品的人，受到大众传媒或其他外部因素的影响，开始使用该产品的可能性。
q = 模仿系数(内部影响)，即尚未使用该产品的人，受到使用者的口碑影响，开始使用该产品的可能性。

标准低音曲线为创新扩散请参考右侧标准巴斯曲线图（p、q值分别为0.03和0.38）。

巴斯扩散模型的运用

巴斯扩散模型简明易了，且足以适用于初次评估，初次评估的时候，往往没有必要运用那些复杂的市场模型。当然，需要注意的是，巴斯扩散模型仅仅是扩散技术模型中的一种，而且，巴斯扩散模型的许多变形业已被开发出来，用以满足某些特殊情形的精确需求。

当对内部或外部的新技术投资进行评估时，创新动力曲线的运动变化规律，以及新技术（或者说新技术应用）的市场扩散特征是非常有用的分析工具。在投资的初期阶段，或企业内部新产品刚刚上马的时候，了解掌握新技术的市场扩散情况是非常重要的。但是没有哪一种工具模型能够准确测试现实，对资金、时间、市场以及机会的判断，都有可能是错误的。巴斯扩散模型的优势在于能够有效评估投资新技术的益处。

小组

加入

革新小组。

小组 (16名成员)

论坛

新主题

革新论坛。

Calculating and Predicting a Product Life Cycle
If we had to determine the life cycle of a product how can it be done. What quantitative variables should we take in con (...)

1条评论

External / Internal Influence Model
Why is the Bass Model also called "external internal influence model"? (...)

Measuring Adoption of Innovation
Hi, I just want to know how you can measure the adoption of an innovation like Bitcoins. Which method can you use and wh (...)

1条评论

How is Bass Curve Model Different from Product Life Cycle
I can not find considerable differences in between the Bass Curve and the Product Life Cycle. Please advise... (...)

Alternate Bass Model Formula
The Bass model can (I think) be written as:
New Cust =
Innovation * (Population - Customers) +
Immitatio (...)

Calculating Nt-1 in Bass | Calculating m, p and q in the Bass Model
How do you calculate Nt-1 in the Bass formula? (...)

7条评论

开始一个新的论坛主题关于革新

最佳实践

关于革新的最高评价的讨论主题。在这里你会找到最有价值的思路和切实可行的建议。

专家提示

关于Innovation（英语）的高级见解。在这里，您将找到专家的专业建议。

	Innovation Pitfalls Avoiding Innovation Traps Harvard Professor R. Moss Kanter describes 4 common innovation mistakes and corresponding remedies (HBR Nov 2006): 1. S (...)
	Limitations of Bass Diffusion Diffusion of new Technology - Despite the sophistication of the Bass Diffusion Model, the resulting data has to be treated with care, as it is mainl (...)
	Social Persuasion: Determining the Potential of Social Influencers Social Media Marketing, Social Influence, Opinion Leadership Which consumers are best able to influence others in social groups? What characteristics and what factors identify those (...)
	Why Some Technology Revolutions Take Off and Others Don't Adoption of New Technologies Back in 1962, Thomas Kuhn wrote �Structure of Scientific Revolutions�, in which he suggested that the entrenched interes (...)

信息来源

有关革新的各种信息来源。在这里，您将找到Powerpoint，视频，新闻等可用于您自己的讲座和讲习班。

	On the Bass diffusion theory. 4 Versions On the Bass Diffusion Theory Four Versions of BD Paper by Philip Hans Franses compares four empirical versions of the Bass Diffusion model. It is shown that some of the (...)
	Opinion Leadership, Worth-Of-Mouth and Buzz Marketing Opinion Leadership, Buzz Marketing, Worth-Of-Mouth Communication, Cool Hunting Presentation with speaking notes about Opinion Leadership, including several related types of marketing. The presentatio (...)
	Extended Bass Diffusion Model Cross-country Diffusion of New Products Paper by H. Peter Boswijk, Dennis Fok and Philip Hans Franses. To examine cross-country diffusion of new products, marke (...)
	Marketing Research: Introduction and Techniques Marketing Research, Qualitative Marketing Research Methods, Research Experiments This presentation provides an overview of Marketing research and its techniques, including focus groups. The presentatio (...)
	Product Life Cycle (PLC) versus Bass Diffusion Product Management, Decision Making Presentation about the Product Life Cycle model thereby making a comparison with the Bass Diffusion Model. It includes t (...)