Bass Diffusion Model[巴斯扩散模型]

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针对创新产品、技术的采用和扩散，Frank M. Bass提出的巴斯扩散模型（Bass Diffusion Model）及其扩展理论，常被用作市场分析工具，对新产品、新技术需求进行预测。 作为诸多市场工具中的一种，巴斯扩散模型的主要功能是对新开发的消费者耐用品的市场购买数量进行描述和预测。
 

许多创新经验已经显示，新方法、新概念的市场扩散过程完全可以用巴斯公式来表达：

巴斯扩散模型的参数

巴斯扩散模型引入三个参量来预测Nt（消费者在第n期购买该产品的数量） ：

• m = 市场潜力， 即潜在使用者总数。
• p = 创新系数(外部影响)， 即尚未使用该产品的人，受到大众传媒或其他外部因素的影响，开始使用该产品的可能性。
• q = 模仿系数(内部影响)， 即尚未使用该产品的人，受到使用者的口碑影响，开始使用该产品的可能性。

请参考右侧标准巴斯曲线图（p、q值分别为0.03和0.38）。

巴斯扩散模型的运用

巴斯扩散模型简明易了，且足以适用于初次评估， 初次评估的时候，往往没有必要运用那些复杂的市场模型。 当然，需要注意的是，巴斯扩散模型仅仅是扩散技术模型中的一种， 而且，巴斯扩散模型的许多变形业已被开发出来，用以满足某些特殊情形的精确需求。

当对内部或外部的新技术投资进行评估时，创新动力曲线的运动变化规律，以及新技术（或者说新技术应用）的市场扩散特征是非常有用的分析工具。 在投资的初期阶段，或企业内部新产品刚刚上马的时候，了解掌握新技术的市场扩散情况是非常重要的。 但是没有哪一种工具模型能够准确测试现实，对资金、时间、市场以及机会的判断，都有可能是错误的。 巴斯扩散模型的优势在于能够有效评估投资新技术的益处。

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比较：   Innovation Adoption Curve[创新采用曲线] (Rogers)  |  Product Life Cycle[产品生命周期]  |  BCG Matrix[BCG矩阵]  |  ADL Matrix[ADL矩阵]  |  Positioning[定位]  |  STRATPORT[STRATPORT模型]  |  Profit Pools[利润池]  |  Marketing Mix[营销组合]  |  Trajectories of Industry Change[产业变革轨迹]  |  Disruptive Innovation[颠覆性创新]

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