Bass Diffusion Model

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Predicting Innovation Curves. Explanation of Bass Diffusion Model of Frank M. Bass. ('69)

The Bass Diffusion Model on the adoption and diffusion of new products and technologies by Frank M. Bass (A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables, 1969, Management Science, 15 , 215-227) and the later extensions of diffusion theory are used for market analysis and demand forecasting of new technologies. The Bass diffusion model is one of the tools to describe, and sometimes predict, the number of purchases for new consumer durable products.
 

Experience from many innovations shows that the spread of a new method or concept in a market can be characterized by the Bass formula:

Parameters of the Bass Diffusion Model

The three parameters of the Bass Diffusion Model to predict Nt (Number of adopters at time t) are:

• m = the market potential; the total number of people who will eventually use the product
• p= the coefficient of innovation (external influence); the likelihood that somebody who is not yet using the product will start using it because of mass media coverage or other external factors
• q= the coefficient of imitation (internal influence); the likelihood that somebody who is not yet using the product will start using it because of "word-of-mouth" or other influence from those already using the product.

See the picture on the right for a typical graphic of the standard bass curve (with the average values of p and q of 0.03 and 0.38, respectively).

Usage of the Bass Diffusion Model

Bass diffusion theory is simple enough to allow a first assessment. There is no immediate need for further complex modeling. However care must be taken as the standard model is only one of the many models of technology diffusion. Many variations on the Bass Diffusion Model have been developed over time, often claiming further precision or applicability for certain circumstances.

The dynamics of the innovation uptake curves, and how the technology or its application diffuse into the market, is a crucial analytic tool when assessing the business case for internal or external investments in new technologies. For early stage investments or internal business cases for new products, it is essential to have some understanding of the likely diffusion of the technology. By not having a mental model to test against reality, the amount of capital, time to market and the window of opportunity can be grossly misjudged. Diffusion of innovation models are important tools for effectively assessing the merits of investing in technologies that are new or novel and do not have prima facie, predictable patterns of user up-take.

Special Interest Group - Bass Diffusion Special Interest Group (217 members)

Forum - Bass Diffusion   In the forum section you will find recent discussions within this knowledge area.   Calculating and Predicting a Product Life Cycle (1 reactions) If we had to determine the life cycle of a product how can i...           External / Internal Influence Model Why is the Bass Model also called "external internal influen...           How is Bass Curve Model Different from Product Life Cycle I can not find considerable differences in between the Bass ...           Measuring Adoption of Innovation (1 reactions) Hi, I just want to know how you can measure the adoption of ...           Alternate Bass Model Formula The Bass model can (I think) be written as: New Cust =...           Calculating Nt-1 in Bass | Calculating m, p and q in the Bass Model (7 reactions) How do you calculate Nt-1 in the Bass formula?...

Best Practices - Bass Diffusion In the best practices section you will find the best forum discussions within this knowledge area.

Expert Tips - Bass Diffusion In the expert tips section you will find advices from experts within this knowledge area.   Innovation Pitfalls Avoiding Innovation Traps...       Limitations of Bass Diffusion Diffusion of new Technology...       Social Persuasion: Determining the Potential of Social Influencers Social Media Marketing, Social Influence, Opinion Leadership...       Why Some Technology Revolutions Take Off and Others Don't Adoption of New Technologies...

Resources - Bass Diffusion In the Resources section you will find powerpoint presentations, micro-learning videos, articles, news items, etc. within this knowledge area. On the Bass diffusion theory. 4 Versions On the Bass Diffusion Theory Four Versions of BD...   Opinion Leadership, Worth-Of-Mouth and Buzz Marketing Opinion Leadership, Buzz Marketing, Worth-Of-Mouth Communication, Cool Hunting...   Extended Bass Diffusion Model Cross-country Diffusion of New Products...   Marketing Research: Introduction and Techniques Marketing Research, Qualitative Marketing Research Methods, Research Experiments...   Product Life Cycle (PLC) versus Bass Diffusion Product Management, Decision Making...     News about Bass Diffusion         News about Diffusion Model         Videos about Bass Diffusion         Videos about Diffusion Model         Presentations about Bass Diffusion         Presentations about Diffusion Model         Books about Bass Diffusion         Books about Diffusion Model         More about Bass Diffusion         More about Diffusion Model

Compare with the bass diffusion model:  Innovation Adoption Curve (Rogers)  |  Product Life Cycle  |  BCG Matrix  |  ADL Matrix  |  Positioning  |  STRATPORT  |  Profit Pools  |  Marketing Mix  |  Four Trajectories of Industry Change  |  Disruptive Innovation

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