Z-Score[Z得分] （Edward I. Altman）

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Edward Altman的Z得分公式（Z-Score Formula）是一个多变量财务公式，用以衡量一个公司的财务健康状况，并对公司在2年内破产的可能性进行诊断与预测。 研究表明该公式的预测准确率高达72% - 80%。
 

纽约大学斯特恩商学院教授、金融经济学家Edward I. Altman博士于1968年发明了Z得分公式。
 

Z得分公式的构成

根据Altman，Z得分运用5个常用的商业比率作为破产预测因子，经过一定的加权， 最后计算得出公司破产的可能性。 该公式最初的应用对象是制造业企业，后经过一定的调整，也同样适用于服务性企业。

Z得分结果分析

如何对Z得分结果进行判断？ 取决于：

• 原始的Z得分[针对公共制造企业]：如果Z得分大于等于3.0，则企业不可能破产。 如果Z得分小于等于1.8，则企业很可能破产。 比分在1.8 - 3.0 之间，是灰色区域。 企业Z得分在此范围内的话，则一年内的破产可能性为95%，两年内的破产可能性为70%。 很显然，Z得分越高，企业越不可能破产。
• 模型A的Z得分[针对私营制造企业]：主要适用于私营制造企业， 而不能应用于其他类型的公司。 如果Z得分大于等于2.90，企业则不可能破产。 如果Z得分小于低于1.23，企业则很可能破产。 Z得分在1.23 - 2.90之间的企业，一年内破产的可能性是95%，两年内破产的可能性是70%。 很显然，Z得分越高，企业越不可能破产。
• 模型B的Z得分[针对私营一般性公司]：这一版本的Z得分主要是用来预测私营的非制造业企业在1-2年内破产的可能性， 所以模型B的Z得分只适用于私营的一般性公司， 而不能应用于其他类型的公司。 如果Z得分大于等于2.60，企业则不可能破产；如果Z得分小于等于1.10，企业则很有可能破产。 1.10 - 2.60之间为灰色区域， Z得分在1.23 - 2.90之间的企业，一年内破产的可能性是95%，两年内破产的可能性是70%。 模型B亦说明，对于企业来说，Z得分越高越好。

Z得分的计算公式，请参见右图。 需要说明的是，公式针对公共企业与私营企业要作相应的调整和变更。

参考书： John B. Caouette， Edward I. Altman， Paul Narayanan - Managing Credit Risk

论坛讨论 Z得分论坛。 开始一个新的论坛主题 分享您的知识或提出问题   Predicting Bankruptcy of SMEs Altman Z.Score has been made for big companies but does not include SME. This kind of companies usually has different environment, behavior and variables. What method can be used here to predict bankr... 10   Very High Z Score: Is a Z score of 1000 Possible? Could a Z score potentially be 1000...?... 7   2条评论 Dynamic Aspects of Altman's Z-Score How does Z-Score take into account the dynamic aspect of companies and economies? (How) Is the model corrected for periods of crisis?... 4   Various Ways to Calculate the Z-score? I am doing a project in finance. I would like to know how manual calculations can be done in Z-Score method?... 4   2条评论 Z-scores Calculator for Spanish SMEs I've prepared an automatic calculator for Altman's z-scores (dopplerp.com/financialviability). You'll notice there's a type of calculation called 'Spanish Company'; that's because it has been prepared... 4   Fault in the formula on this page According to Altman's own article (find references on the English Z-score Wikipedia page) the ratio for X4 for private manufacturers and non-manufacturers should be: Book value of equity/Book value... 4   Non-financial Factors in Prediction of Financial Distress Financial distress management may lead to a successful turnaround of a firm if there would be timely detection of the symptoms of decline well in advance. On the other hand, some turnarounds do not su... 3   Strengths and Weaknesses of Z-Score Help me, who can tell me about the strength and weaknesses of z-score model?... 3   Applicability of Z Score to Financial Institutions? I've read that the Altman Z score shouldn't be used for financial firms. Is this correct? Thank you.... 3   2条评论

专家提示 关于Z-Score (Altman)（英语）的高级见解。在这里，您将找到专家的专业建议。 ZETA Model Bankruptcy Prediction The ZETA Model, also developed by Altman et al. (1977), is a more refined bankruptcy prediction model. The predictive ac... Altman�s Z-Score in Performance Management Performance Management and Value-based Management Altman�s Z-Score has been very influential in areas such as credit risk analysis, distressed investing, Mergers & Acquis...

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