Z-Score[Z得分] (Edward I. Altman)

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总结

Z-Score[Z得分]破产AltmanEdward Altman的Z得分公式(Z-Score Formula)是一个多变量财务公式,用以衡量一个公司的财务健康状况,并对公司在2年内破产的可能性进行诊断与预测。 研究表明该公式的预测准确率高达72% - 80%。
 

纽约大学斯特恩商学院教授、金融经济学家Edward I. Altman博士于1968年发明了Z得分公式。
 

Z得分公式的构成

根据AltmanZ得分运用5个常用的商业比率作为破产预测因子,经过一定的加权, 最后计算得出公司破产的可能性。 该公式最初的应用对象是制造业企业,后经过一定的调整,也同样适用于服务性企业。


Z得分结果分析

如何对Z得分结果进行判断? 取决于:

  • 原始的Z得分[针对公共制造企业]:如果Z得分大于等于3.0,则企业不可能破产。 如果Z得分小于等于1.8,则企业很可能破产。 比分在1.8 - 3.0 之间,是灰色区域。 企业Z得分在此范围内的话,则一年内的破产可能性为95%,两年内的破产可能性为70%。 很显然,Z得分越高,企业越不可能破产。
  • 模型AZ得分[针对私营制造企业]:主要适用于私营制造企业, 而不能应用于其他类型的公司。 如果Z得分大于等于2.90,企业则不可能破产。 如果Z得分小于低于1.23,企业则很可能破产。 Z得分在1.23 - 2.90之间的企业,一年内破产的可能性是95%,两年内破产的可能性是70%。 很显然,Z得分越高,企业越不可能破产。
  • 模型BZ得分[针对私营一般性公司]:这一版本的Z得分主要是用来预测私营的非制造业企业在1-2年内破产的可能性, 所以模型BZ得分只适用于私营的一般性公司, 而不能应用于其他类型的公司。 如果Z得分大于等于2.60,企业则不可能破产;如果Z得分小于等于1.10,企业则很有可能破产。 1.10 - 2.60之间为灰色区域, Z得分在1.23 - 2.90之间的企业,一年内破产的可能性是95%,两年内破产的可能性是70%。 模型B亦说明,对于企业来说,Z得分越高越好。

Z得分的计算公式,请参见右图。 需要说明的是,公式针对公共企业与私营企业要作相应的调整和变更。


参考书: John B. Caouette, Edward I. Altman, Paul Narayanan - Managing Credit Risk


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Predicting Bankruptcy of SMEs
Altman Z.Score has been made for big companies but does not include SME. This kind of companies usually has different en (...)
10
 
Very High Z Score: Is a Z score of 1000 Possible?
Could a Z score potentially be 1000...? (...)
7
 
2条评论
Dynamic Aspects of Altman's Z-Score
How does Z-Score take into account the dynamic aspect of companies and economies?
(How) Is the model corrected for (...)
4
 
Various Ways to Calculate the Z-score?
I am doing a project in finance. I would like to know how manual calculations can be done in Z-Score method? (...)
4
 
2条评论
Z-scores Calculator for Spanish SMEs
I've prepared an automatic calculator for Altman's z-scores (dopplerp.com/financialviability). You'll notice there's a t (...)
4
 
Fault in the formula on this page
According to Altman's own article (find references on the English Z-score Wikipedia page) the ratio for X4 for private m (...)
4
 
Non-financial Factors in Prediction of Financial Distress
Financial distress management may lead to a successful turnaround of a firm if there would be timely detection of the sy (...)
3
 
Strengths and Weaknesses of Z-Score
Help me, who can tell me about the strength and weaknesses of z-score model? (...)
3
 
Applicability of Z Score to Financial Institutions?
I've read that the Altman Z score shouldn't be used for financial firms. Is this correct? Thank you. (...)
3
 
2条评论

 

最佳实践

关于Z得分的最高评价的讨论主题。在这里你会找到最有价值的思路和切实可行的建议。


专家提示

关于Z-Score (Altman)(英语)的高级见解。在这里,您将找到专家的专业建议。


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信息来源

有关Z得分的各种信息来源。在这里,您将找到Powerpoint,视频,新闻等可用于您自己的讲座和讲习班。


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