The Role of Experts in Causing Black Swans

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The Role of Experts in Causing Black Swans
Wulf-Dieter Krueger, Member
Looking at events in the financial world over the past 3 years in particular that were triggered by sub-prime loans in the US, I believe that Black Swans are caused by those 'experts' creating 'instruments' and thinking out theories and publishing about them in 'experts' publications'. These make readers believe they cannot do their jobs properly, if they do not read expert drivel.
Since the 1920-ies Black Swans emanated from the 'Wall Streets' in this world and their experts - how about re-introducing generalist common sense based on traditional ethics that run along the line 'well, you just don't do that, it's not good'?
 

 
Via Negativa. Give Negative Advice
Jos Nieland, SIG Leader
Good thought. Taleb, the author of the Black Swan concept also thinks in this way. In his new book antifragility he is introducing the idea of the via negativa. In an opaque world, we hardly know what's going on and we don't know what is a good decision and what's happiness for instance.
What we do know is what's wrong and what's unhappiness. So the only good advice is negative advice. Positive advice comes, according to Taleb, mostly from charlatans.
 

 











 

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