The Role of Statistics in Predicting Black Swans

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The Role of Statistics in Predicting Black Swans
Raj kumar, India, Member
Events having a major impact and a low probability are termed Black Swans... I am agreeing to the point that statistics has not much of a role to play in predicting them, but at the same time with the help of statistics we can know what will be the impact of a Black Swan if it arises..
Thus statistics can still help in the decision making process. Ruling out statistics will be a biased decision....Sign up

Jos Nieland, Teacher, Netherlands, SIG Leader
Indeed statistics is useful but not for predicting/decision making in the fourth quadrant!...Sign up

Raj kumar, India, Member
The fourth quadrant is extremely fragile and very complex.. We won't be able to predict the Black Swan effect reason...
But we can explore the r...Sign up

Statistics in Fourth Quadrant
Jos Nieland, Teacher, Netherlands, SIG Leader
Taleb is not convinced. He just wrote a new book 'Antifragility' to convince people to decide in an antifragile and robust way when in the fourth quad...Sign up


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