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Taleb's Mathematical Foundation: Silent Risk
Jos Nieland, Teacher, Netherlands
Taleb has just completed the mathematical foundation supporting his other books (Antifragile, The Black Swan, The bed of Procrustus and Fooled by Randomness). He calls this: "Silent Risk".
Silent Risk is the finishing part of Taleb's Incerto (work, books) about decision making in a world we don't understand. If you want to take a look, it is freely available here.
It's a mathematical/technical support for Taleb's idea that detecting fragility is a better risk management strategy than trying to measure risk or trying to predict Black Swans. If you don't want to be fragile, be sure that you, your company or your nation is not more than proportionaly exposed to volatility / Black Swans. Because eventually everything that's fragile will be destroyed.
Therefore try to be antifragile. If you do that, this has the additional benefit that your organization may even GAIN from volatility and/or Black Swans.
Now that Taleb has finished his Incerto, he is after financial and macro economists. Taleb considers them crooks of randomness because they hide risks and wants to challenge them in a public conversation.
What do you think? How right is he?
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