How Fragile is your Organization?

Black Swan Thinking > Best Practices Log in

How Fragile is your Organization?
Jos Nieland, Teacher, Netherlands, SIG Leader
In his brand new book 'Antifragile', Nassim Nicolas Taleb takes his method of dealing with Black Swans to a new level. No, you still can't predict Black Swans. These low-probability, high-impact events don't show up in any (historical) data and are unnoticed. And because of that, you can't measure or calculate their risk (neither their probability nor impact).

However, you can analyze - in a qualitative way - whether your organization (or any system or a country) will be harmed disproportionally by a Black Swan. By examining its FRAGILITY.

According to Taleb, there are a number of factors that are increasing fragility. Here are 3 examples of such factors:
1. The intensity of the event increases harm more than proportional. To find out if an investment is fragile or anti-fragile, test what happens if the markets drop 10%. The...Register

How Fragile is your Organization
LEO LINGHAM, DIRECTOR, Australia, Member
This article is very useful. In real business life, this does takes place.
Hence, it is necessary for organizations to develop strategic plans an...

How Fragile is your Organisation?
SATISH PANDE, Business Consultant, India, Member
A very thought provoking relevant article.
1. The basic presumption of 'Black Swans' is that they are unpredictable, rarely occurring and do not ...

Analyzing the Fragility of your Organization is an Excellent Initial Precautionary Measure
Jaap de Jonge, CEO, Netherlands, Editor
Thanks Jos for sharing this with us. Your summary of Taleb's thinking about this topical subject is concise and helpful.
In my opinion, analyzin...

Building in Robustness
Bill Young, Consultant, Switzerland, Member
Organisations which strive for efficiency become more fragile. Removal of less efficient processes reduces 'memetic' (Dawkins' organisational equivale...

Prediction of Corporate Fragility via SWOT Analysis
Arrey Benedict, Management Consultant, Belgium, Member
@SATISH PANDE : You are very correct. Such a rigid approach towards the prediction of corporate fragility could defi...

Finding Fragile Areas in your Organisation
Veteran Air Commodore DR HSR, Consultant, India, Member
How fragile your organisation is is a most challenging concept. If you apply a 360 degree protocol at each aspect, these fragile areas will become vis...

Fragility and Black Swan
Samuell Yew, Project Manager, Malaysia, Member
The problem with a Black Swan is that it is unpredictable. The problem with fragility is it is hard to analyse and measure. This can be very academic ...

Fragility Measurement
Bill Young, Consultant, Switzerland, Member
@Samuell Yew: Surely fragility is easy to assess. Anyone could tell you that the eastern seaboard of the USA is susc...

Hw Fragile is your Organization
K.Narayana Moorthy, HR Consultant, India, Member
Risks for an organization convert themselves to uncertainty. This creates fragility in organization. It can be to a great extent corrected by applying...

Regular Analysis of SWOT
Damodaram Kuppuswami, Consultant, India, Member
@Arrey Benedict: I agree that SWOT analysis provides focused direction in addressing the fragility of the organisati...

Analysis of Future Indicators
salem ahmed, Manager, Yemen, Member
Thanks, it is useful idea to know how fragile your organization is, I agree that we can analyse fragility, although we can't measure it exactly. I thi...

Fragility + Risk Analysis
Julius Nyangaga, Consultant, Kenya, Member
@Arrey Benedict: I agree. It is an extension of the W and T aspects of SWOT with the added value of quantified risk ...

WHEN to Prepare your Organization / Country for Black Swans?
Jaap de Jonge, CEO, Netherlands, Editor
@Bill Young: good remark about being political savvy... Indeed AT THE MOMENT of a major disaster it often makes sens...

Pointers to Reduce Fragility
Jos Nieland, Teacher, Netherlands, SIG Leader
@Satish Pande: thanks for your reply. Pointers to make systems organizations less fragile, Taleb calls it "the via n...

Pointers to Reduce Fragiitiy
SATISH PANDE, Business Consultant, India, Member
@Jos Nieland: thanks for sharing those "pointers". Those were definitely useful....

Fragility and Black Swans
K.Narayana Moorthy, HR Consultant, India, Member
A Black Swan situation is probable to occur in the following situations:
- Rapid changes takes place in a project work.
- Changing political...

Please Provide Arguments
Jaap de Jonge, CEO, Netherlands, Editor
@K.Narayana Moorthy: Please provide some arguments why you argue that these situations could be pointers for Black S...

Fragility is Seldom Captured in a SWOT Analysis
Love Lonnroth, Management Consultant, Sweden, Member
As mentioned in this thread, the SWOT Analysis should capture the fragility of the organization, but in my experience it never does. This is because t...


Special Interest Group Leader
Jos Nieland

Black Swan Thinking

Best Practices
Expert Tips


About 12manage | Advertising | Link to us / Cite us | Privacy | Suggestions | Terms of Service
2018 12manage - The Executive Fast Track. V14.1 - Last updated: 19-10-2018. All names of their owners.