Time Frame in Scenario Planning?

Time Frame in Scenario Planning?

A scenario consist of a statement of an end state and a story explaining how the end state has developed, together with the underlying logic of external environment and internal forces in the industry / firm.
Did a write up on scenario planning but got it confused at a point with forecasting through provision of historical data... Found it kind of convenient to predict the future based on the occurences in the past.
I would appreciate if someone that has a hands on experience of scenario planning explains, how do you arrive at the time frame determination and how specific are their scenarios about the future. Many thanks, Ade

		Comments Sort by date Sort by rating Rating
		0 Jozef, Netherlands
	Scenario Planning Criteria A scenario always has an end stage and a begin stage. In between are either steps or a continuum, say “stages”. Every stage always has 4 dimensions: time, place, quality and quantity. When comparing scenario’s, write down the criteria first. Vary only ONE dimension per scenario, thus avoiding results that can not be tracked down to a singe variable. Painstaking labour? Yes. Profitable? Often!

		0 Feigelbinder, Germany
	Scenario Planning and Story Telling It's a good idea to combine Scenario Planning with Story Telling.... Sign up

		0 Greg Kington, USA
	Scenario Plannning - avoid forecasting One way to avoid forecasting is to explain at the beginning that no-one knows the future. And that ... Sign up

		1 Jaap de Jonge Editor, Netherlands
	Length of Analysis Period in Scenario Planning The length of the timeframe one should plan for in Scenario Planning depends on the circumstances. H... Sign up