Time Frame in Scenario Planning?
A scenario consist of a statement of an end state and a story explaining how the end state has developed, together with the underlying logic of external environment and internal forces in the industry / firm.
Did a write up on scenario planning but got it confused at a point with forecasting through provision of historical data... Found it kind of convenient to predict the future based on the occurences in the past.
I would appreciate if someone that has a hands on experience of scenario planning explains, how do you arrive at the time frame determination
and how specific are their scenarios about the future. Many thanks, Ade
Scenario Planning Criteria
A scenario always has an end stage and a begin stage.
In between are either steps or a continuum, say “stages”. Every stage always has 4 dimensions: time, place, quality and quantity.
When comparing scenario’s, write down the criteria first. Vary only ONE dimension per scenario, thus avoiding results that can not be tracked down to a singe variable. Painstaking labour? Yes. Profitable? Often!