Scenario Plannning - avoid forecasting
One way to avoid forecasting is to explain at the beginning that no-one knows the future
And that the purpose of scenario planning is NOT to forecast, but to expand thinking
about how current trends, if they continue, COULD affect the business environment and how the business might BEGIN acting today in order to best take advantage of the opportunities presented in the each scenario at the target scenario date.
One part of the exercise is to attempt to develop indicators
for each plausible scenario in order to know which one (if any) actually comes about. The trick is finding senior execs who will make sure the scenario plan is not put away in a file and ignored, but regularly updated. Good luck!