Scenario Planning Instruments

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Scenario Planning Instruments
Patricia Ziegerink , Member
For the thesis of my MBA study I'm researching the influence of culture on the succesful implementation of scenario planning in organizations. As guideline for my research I'm looking for a theory, method, instrument or model for scenario planning or building that is valid and has proven its use. Does anyone have any suggestions?

Scenario Planning Method
Ashish J Shah, Member
Hi Patricia, I used a scenario planning approach extensively on my MBA project sponsored by a bioscience company that involved analyzing India's pharmaceutical outlook for the future and providing strategic insights to the sponsoring company to help them decide if and how they would proceed with their market entry with some innovative products the company had developed.
Depending on the time constraints, I would suggest you narrow your study down to a particular industry or group of organizations e.g. IT companies in the Silicon Valley engaged in OS development. Once you have researched a set of organizations, you could apply scenario planning by treating your case for this segment of the industry as a whole and not for an individual organization. Your research of the history and present culture of the organizations will throw up numerous contradictions and points to debate, which should then help you list your uncertainties. Hope this helps!

Scenario Planning Instruments
Zsolt Nyiri, Member
Dear Patricia, we perform systemic behavioral modeling in our mathematical modeling centre and include human dynamics (such as culture) in our strategic scenario planning. We developed an own instrument, the Viewpoint Model, as there is a void for this topic in academia. You are most welcome to contact me. Our Institute for Strategy and Complexity Management supervises various MBA students who have made similar observations like you did...

Scenario Planning Instruments
Wilson Fyffe, Member
Hi Patricia, I have developed a general structure based on controllable/uncontrollable future events classes across a range of industries an regions. It has worked well in 6 industries in a test case in the maldives. Now getting ready for global launch. Let me know if this may help.

Systemic Behavioural Modeling
Flapper, Member
@Zsolt Nyiri: Your viewpoint model sounds very interesting. I wonder if you could perhaps share some more info on this topic with me? I'm a strategist working in the banking sector and am looking for ways to include behaviour in our scenario's.
Kind regards, Angelique.


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