Calculating and Predicting a Product Life Cycle

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Mrinal Ghosh
Business Consultant, India
If we had to determine the life cycle of a product how can it be done. What quantitative variables should we take in consideration for calculating the same and why? (...) Read more? Sign up for free

  Jaap de Jonge
Editor, Netherlands
 

Predicting the Life Cycle of a New Product

- Computers are better than humans in predicting the future in relatively unambiguous contexts.
- Humans beat computers in highly uncertain contexts.
According to Matthias Seifert and Allègre L. Hadida in "3 Humans + 1 Computer = Best Prediction" (HBR May, 2013), what is even better is combining the 'opinions' from BOTH computers and humans.
A best practice for highly uncertain environments, such as a product launch for a groundbreaking product, is to take 3 experts, average their opinions and combine that with the prediction by the computer, while giving greater weight to the experts opinion.

 

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