Calculating and Predicting a Product Life Cycle

12manage is hiring Management/MBA Students!

Bass Diffusion > Forum Log in

Calculating and Predicting a Product Life Cycle
Mrinal Ghosh, Member
If we had to determine the life cycle of a product how can it be done. What quantitative variables should we take in consideration for calculating the same and why?

Predicting the Life Cycle of a New Product
Jaap de Jonge, Editor
- Computers are better than humans in predicting the future in relatively unambiguous contexts.
- Humans beat computers in highly uncertain contexts.
According to Matthias Seifert and Allègre L. Hadida in "3 Humans + 1 Computer = Best Prediction" (HBR May, 2013), what is even better is combining the 'opinions' from BOTH computers and humans.
A best practice for highly uncertain environments, such as a product launch for a groundbreaking product, is to take 3 experts, average their opinions and combine that with the prediction by the computer, while giving greater weight to the experts opinion.



  Do you wish to study further? You can learn more from the summary, forum, discussions, lessons, courses, training, instructions, expert tips, best practices and education sources. Register.  

Special Interest Group Leader

You here

More on Bass Diffusion
Best Practices

Expert Tips


About 12manage | Advertising | Link to us / Cite us | Privacy | Suggestions | Terms of Service
© 2018 12manage - The Executive Fast Track. V14.1 - Last updated: 18-6-2018. All names ™ of their owners.