Calculating and Predicting a Product Life Cycle

      
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		            		Mrinal Ghosh
Business Consultant, India
			            
Calculating and Predicting a Product Life Cycle

	          		If we had to determine the life cycle of a product how can it be done. What quantitative variables should we take in consideration for calculating the same and why?
				      
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						            	Jaap de Jonge
Editor, Netherlands
												
				                Predicting the Life Cycle of a New Product

													- Computers are better than humans in predicting the future in relatively unambiguous contexts.

- Humans beat computers in highly uncertain contexts.

According to Matthias Seifert and Allègre L. Hadida in "3 Humans + 1 Computer = Best Prediction" (HBR May, 2013), what is even better is combining the 'opinions' from BOTH computers and humans.

A best practice for highly uncertain environments, such as a product launch for a groundbreaking product, is to take 3 experts, average their opinions and combine that with the prediction by the computer, while giving greater weight to the experts opinion.
				                
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