Calculating and Predicting a Product Life Cycle



Innovation
Knowledge Center

Translate

Forum
14
Mrinal Ghosh
Business Consultant, India

Calculating and Predicting a Product Life Cycle

If we had to determine the life cycle of a product how can it be done. What quantitative variables should we take in consideration for calculating the same and why?
 
Comments

Rating

 
0
Jaap de Jonge
Editor, Netherlands
 

Predicting the Life Cycle of a New Product

- Computers are better than humans in predicting the future in relatively unambiguous contexts.
- Humans beat computers in highly uncertain contexts.
According to Matthias Seifert and Allègre L. Hadida in "3 Humans + 1 Computer = Best Prediction" (HBR May, 2013), what is even better is combining the 'opinions' from BOTH computers and humans.
A best practice for highly uncertain environments, such as a product launch for a groundbreaking product, is to take 3 experts, average their opinions and combine that with the prediction by the computer, while giving greater weight to the experts opinion.

   

More on Innovation:
Summary
Discuss
👀Calculating and Predicting a Product Life Cycle
External / Internal Influence Model
How is Bass Curve Model Different from Product Life Cycle
🔥Measuring Adoption of Innovation
Alternate Bass Model Formula
Calculating Nt-1 in Bass | Calculating m, p and q in the Bass Model
Special Interest Group

Do you have a keen interest in Innovation? Become our SIG Leader

Innovation
Knowledge Center



About 12manage | Advertising | Link to us / Cite us | Privacy | Suggestions | Terms of Service
© 2022 12manage - The Executive Fast Track. V15.8 - Last updated: 5-12-2022. All names ™ of their owners.