|
Mrinal Ghosh
Business Consultant, India
|
Calculating and Predicting a Product Life Cycle
If we had to determine the life cycle of a product how can it be done. What quantitative variables should we take in consideration for calculating the same and why?
X
Welcome to the Innovation forum.
The topic of this particular discussion is: "Calculating and Predicting a Product Life Cycle".
Please register now to read all responses and to join this discussion yourself.
Log in
| |
|
Jaap de Jonge
Editor, Netherlands
|
|
Predicting the Life Cycle of a New Product
- Computers are better than humans in predicting the future in relatively unambiguous contexts.
- Humans beat computers in highly uncertain contexts.
According to Matthias Seifert and Allègre L. Hadida in "3 Humans + 1 Computer = Best Prediction" (HBR May, 2013), what is even better is combining the 'opinions' from BOTH computers and humans.
A best practice for highly uncertain environments, such as a product launch for a groundbreaking product, is to take 3 experts, average their opinions and combine that with the prediction by the computer, while giving greater weight to the experts opinion.
|
|
|
|
|
Copy this into your study materials:
and add a hyperlink to:
|
|
|
Copy this HTML code to your web site:
|
|
|
Start a new forum topic