How to Avoid Anchoring in Strategic Decision Making?
🔥 NEW Recently, Taleb and Nobel prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman together explored their differing approaches to unlocking the mysteries of decision making processes (in the New York Library). Taleb learned from Kahneman the idea of anchoring bias: when you ask someone the last four figures of his social security number and then how many dentists exist in Manhattan, there will be a correlation according to Kahneman.
 People use available 'knowledge', information and forecasts (KIF) without any doubt. And the more complex the KIF presented, the riskier decisions people make! People are too ' gullible' (Editor: ~naive, unsuspecting) using KIF. Besides this naivety, sometimes it can also be very profitable for them to use complex KIF (think of bonuses and rewards).
So people, according to psychology, will overly use (early) presented KIF in their decisions. And that can be disastrous: such decisions, based on anchoring and forecasting, can have severe side effects (Taleb calls them 'iatrogenics', a medical term), which decision makers do not see or expect, or do not want to see. And these side effects are particularly severe and dangerous in Taleb's fourth quadrant ("wild randomness", see the summary of Black Swan Theory).
The question I have is: How do you prevent anchoring bias (AB) from occurring when making strategic decisions in your organization and - if you can't - how do you counter these severe side effects?
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Welcome to the Anchoring Bias forum. The topic being discussed here is: "How to Avoid Anchoring in Strategic Decision Making?".
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Alan Kennedy, Canada
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The WRAP Model of Decision-Making
I think Mr. Wiedenbrugge makes an important observ...
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Mucherwa Oliver Ngoni, Zimbabwe
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Avoiding Anchoring in Strategic Decision Making
@Nhlanhla Sibisi: but how do you define 'experien...
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Jorge Garrido, Mexico
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How do You Prevent Anchoring Bias (AB) from Occurring When Making Strategic Decisions in your Organization and if You Can`t How do You Counter These Severe Side Effects?
A lot of executives never played in a team when th...
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