How to Avoid Anchoring in Strategic Decision Making?

      
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		            		Jos Nieland
Netherlands
			            
How to Avoid Anchoring in Strategic Decision Making?

	          		🔥NEW Recently, Taleb and Nobel prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman together explored their differing approaches to unlocking the mysteries of decision making processes (in the New York Library). Taleb learned from Kahneman the idea of anchoring bias: when you ask someone the last four figures of his social security number and then how many dentists exist in Manhattan, there will be a correlation according to Kahneman.

People use available 'knowledge', information and forecasts (KIF) without any doubt. And the more complex the KIF presented, the riskier decisions people make! People are too 'gullible' (Editor: ~naive, unsuspecting) using KIF. Besides this naivety, sometimes it can also be very profitable for them to use complex KIF (think of bonuses and rewards).

So people, according to psychology, will overly use (early) presented KIF in their decisions. And that can be disastrous: such decisions, based on anchoring and forecasting, can have severe side effects (Taleb calls them 'iatrogenics', a medical term), which decision makers do not see or expect, or do not want to see. And these side effects are particularly severe and dangerous in Taleb's fourth quadrant ("wild randomness", see the summary of Black Swan Theory).

The question I have is: How do you prevent anchoring bias (AB) from occurring when making strategic decisions in your organization and - if you can't - how do you counter these severe side effects?
				      
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						            	Nhlanhla Sibisi
Student (University), Germany
												
				                The Experience Factor in Strategic Decision Making..

													How is the 'experience factor' included in this (or our) decision making process? I strongly believe... Sign up
				              
										              -2

						            	Paramathmuni srinivas Kumar
India
												
				                Role of Consciousness in Decision Making

													I think if the decisions are based on consciousness then anchoring can be avoided.
There is ample n... Sign up
				              
										              4

						            	Jaap de Jonge
Editor, Netherlands
												
				                Will Consciousness Help a Lot?

													@Srinivas: Thanks for your contribution to this discussion. Perhaps making people conscious about th... Sign up
				              
										              1

						            	Ian van Jaarsveld
Consultant, South Africa
												
				                Anchoring Bias and Influences

													@Jaap de Jonge (Editor): I think this comment is spot on, we are constantly building our own 'frames... Sign up
				              
										              6

						            	Marcel Wiedenbrugge
Consultant, Netherlands
												
				                How People make Decisions

													Kahneman's book 'Thinking, fast and slow' already explains a lot about how people think and make dec... Sign up
				              
										              2

						            	Tom Wilson
HR Consultant, United States
												
				                Everything Anchors Bias; Consider 6TH

													This issue is of the essence in all planning and decision making. To put it another way, what does n... Sign up
				              
										              -1

						            	Marcel Wiedenbrugge
Consultant, Netherlands
												
				                Decision Making - 6 Hats

													I think 6 hats is certainly a nice model, but it does not tell me how to make decisions, it only str... Sign up
				              
										              1

						            	Venta Longman
Turnaround Manager, Jamaica
												
				                6TH Expands Decision Making

													KIF are definitely influencers in decision making but to the extent that we have to strategically si... Sign up
				              
										              6

						            	Alan Kennedy, Canada
												
				                The WRAP Model of Decision-Making

													I think Mr. Wiedenbrugge makes an important observation. Decision-makers should understand concepts ... Sign up
				              
										              2

						            	J Braun
Entrepreneur, United States
												
				                Understanding the Basic Power of Disagreement

													I work in a family organization, and it's a fair statement to say that my father and I are more than... Sign up
				              
										              -1

						            	Paramathmuni srinivas Kumar
India
												
				                Consciousness Based Decision Making

													Hi @Jaap, it is true that information received first has a lot of influence since it makes an impres... Sign up
				              
										              3

						            	Makini
Business Consultant
												
				                Experience in Decision Making

													@Nhlanhla Sibisi: it's true that experience can guide decision making, but experience ALONE cannot h... Sign up
				              
										              4

						            	Jos Nieland
Netherlands
												
				                Preparing for Downsides/ Sideeffects After the Decision

													De Bono's 6 Hats, Kahneman's book and Heath and Sibony's WRAP framework all give very important tool... Sign up
				              
										              0

						            	Tom Wilson
HR Consultant, United States
												
				                Constantly Operating Contingencies

													@Makini: I agree completely. In fact, the more experience one has, the more one becomes aware of the... Sign up
				              
										              1

						            	Venta Longman
Turnaround Manager, Jamaica
												
				                Experience, Imagination, Creativity and Adaptation in Decision Making

													Experience is one of several variables in decision making based on choice. It contributes to the ele... Sign up
				              
										              1

						            	Jim Carwardine
Business Consultant, Canada
												
				                AB Can Be Avoided..

													Many decisions are made in a Problem-Solving (PS) mode or mindset, allowing AB to invade that mindse... Sign up
				              
										              1

						            	Tom Wilson
HR Consultant, United States
												
				                Creating a Mindset Begins with AB

													@Jim Carwardine: All of these formulas for decision making tend to be diagnostic, which is to say, t... Sign up
				              
										              0

						            	Oluyemi Anjorin
HR Consultant, Nigeria
												
				                Decision Making Viz-a-Viz Bias

													Decision making requires critical thinking and critically observing facts. Critical/creative thinkin... Sign up
				              
										              1

						            	Damodaram Kuppuswami
Consultant, India
												
				                Objectivity and Self Inquiry

													One possible approach could be enhancing objectivity progressively. A major obstacle is being judgem... Sign up
				              
										              2

						            	Jim Carwardine
Business Consultant, Canada
												
				                Anchoring Bias Can Be Avoided..

													@Tom Wilson: Point taken, Tom... My shorthand was a little too brief... Perspective is a good antido... Sign up
				              
										              1

						            	Mucherwa Oliver Ngoni, Zimbabwe
												
				                Avoiding Anchoring in Strategic Decision Making

													@Nhlanhla Sibisi:  but how do you define 'experience factor'? Is it not the "knowledge", and "inform... Sign up
				              
										              1

						            	Tom Wilson
HR Consultant, United States
												
				                AB is a Characteristic of the Self-organizing Mind

													@Mucherwa Oliver Ngoni: You have probably seen that pitcher-profile sketch that is used to demonstra... Sign up
				              
										              0

						            	Paramathmuni srinivas Kumar
India
												
				                Irrational Elements Can Educated

													@Tom Wilson: The irrational elements of the mind can be educated. I think it is the highest form of ... Sign up
				              
										              0

						            	Tom Wilson
HR Consultant, United States
												
				                The Unconscious Can Be Enriched Through Experiential Training

													@Srinivas: I agree completely. As you say, that is the great virtue of experiential learning models.... Sign up
				              
										              0

						            	Paramathmuni srinivas Kumar
India
												
				                Role of Good Association

													@Tom Wilson: Does good association help with disassociation of an impression (data) in our conscious... Sign up
				              
										              0

						            	Tom Wilson
HR Consultant, United States
												
				                Dissociation and Good Association

													@Srinivas: This is getting a bit beyond my pay grade, but, yes, if you can construct preferential as... Sign up
				              
										              2

						            	shashinhale Wanna
Project Manager, Tanzania
												
				                Decision Making, Age Contribute to Biasness

													I'm sorry to say that "the older people become, the more one sided they become". This brings bias in... Sign up
				              
										              1

						            	Jorge Garrido, Mexico
												
				                How do You Prevent Anchoring Bias (AB) from Occurring When Making Strategic Decisions in your Organization and if You Can`t How do You Counter These Severe Side Effects?

													A lot of executives never played in a team when they were young. They spent most of their time in li... Sign up
				              
										              4

						            	Satya Nistala
India
												
				                Anchored Bias or Anchoring Bias. How to Avoid it?

													The question is: Are we anchored and thus make biased decisions or are we biased and therefore we an... Sign up
				              
										              1

						            	Tom Wilson
HR Consultant, United States
												
				                Action as Meditation

													@Satya Nistala: While I agree with you in the main, there is a bias towards action in Christianity. ... Sign up
				              
										              0

						            	Paramathmuni srinivas Kumar
India
												
				                The Effect of Yoga on Avoiding Anchoring Bias

													There is a knowledge body which is called kriya yoga. Can anchoring be avoided using this technique ... Sign up
				              
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