How to Avoid Anchoring in Strategic Decision Making?

How to Avoid Anchoring in Strategic Decision Making?

🔥NEW Recently, Taleb and Nobel prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman together explored their differing approaches to unlocking the mysteries of decision making processes (in the New York Library). Taleb learned from Kahneman the idea of anchoring bias: when you ask someone the last four figures of his social security number and then how many dentists exist in Manhattan, there will be a correlation according to Kahneman.

People use available 'knowledge', information and forecasts (KIF) without any doubt. And the more complex the KIF presented, the riskier decisions people make! People are too 'gullible' (Editor: ~naive, unsuspecting) using KIF. Besides this naivety, sometimes it can also be very profitable for them to use complex KIF (think of bonuses and rewards).

So people, according to psychology, will overly use (early) presented KIF in their decisions. And that can be disastrous: such decisions, based on anchoring and forecasting, can have severe side effects (Taleb calls them 'iatrogenics', a medical term), which decision makers do not see or expect, or do not want to see. And these side effects are particularly severe and dangerous in Taleb's fourth quadrant ("wild randomness", see the summary of Black Swan Theory).

The question I have is: How do you prevent anchoring bias (AB) from occurring when making strategic decisions in your organization and - if you can't - how do you counter these severe side effects?

		Nhlanhla Sibisi Student (University), Germany
	The Experience Factor in Strategic Decision Making.. How is the 'experience factor' included in this (o...

		Paramathmuni srinivas Kumar India
	Role of Consciousness in Decision Making I think if the decisions are based on consciousnes...

		Jaap de Jonge Editor, Netherlands
	Will Consciousness Help a Lot? @Srinivas: Thanks for your contribution to this di...

		Ian van Jaarsveld Strategy Consultant, South Africa
	Anchoring Bias and Influences @Jaap de Jonge (Editor): I think this comment is s...

		Marcel Wiedenbrugge Consultant, Netherlands
	How People make Decisions Kahneman's book 'Thinking, fast and slow' already ...

		Tom Wilson HR Consultant, United States
	Everything Anchors Bias; Consider 6TH This issue is of the essence in all planning and d...

		Marcel Wiedenbrugge Consultant, Netherlands
	Decision Making - 6 Hats I think 6 hats is certainly a nice model, but it d...

		Venta Longman Turnaround Manager, Jamaica
	6TH Expands Decision Making KIF are definitely influencers in decision making ...

		Alan Kennedy, Canada
	The WRAP Model of Decision-Making I think Mr. Wiedenbrugge makes an important observ...

		J Braun Entrepreneur, United States
	Understanding the Basic Power of Disagreement I work in a family organization, and it's a fair s...

		Paramathmuni srinivas Kumar India
	Consciousness Based Decision Making Hi @Jaap, it is true that information received fir...

		Makini Business Consultant
	Experience in Decision Making @Nhlanhla Sibisi: it's true that experience can gu...

		Jos Nieland Netherlands
	Preparing for Downsides/ Sideeffects After the Decision De Bono's 6 Hats, Kahneman's book and Heath and Si...

		Tom Wilson HR Consultant, United States
	Constantly Operating Contingencies @Makini: I agree completely. In fact, the more exp...

		Venta Longman Turnaround Manager, Jamaica
	Experience, Imagination, Creativity and Adaptation in Decision Making Experience is one of several variables in decision...

		Jim Carwardine Business Consultant, Canada
	AB Can Be Avoided.. Many decisions are made in a Problem-Solving (PS) ...

		Tom Wilson HR Consultant, United States
	Creating a Mindset Begins with AB @Jim Carwardine: All of these formulas for decisio...

		Oluyemi Anjorin HR Consultant, Nigeria
	Decision Making Viz-a-Viz Bias Decision making requires critical thinking and cri...

		Damodaram Kuppuswami Consultant, India
	Objectivity and Self Inquiry One possible approach could be enhancing objectivi...

		Jim Carwardine Business Consultant, Canada
	Anchoring Bias Can Be Avoided.. @Tom Wilson: Point taken, Tom... My shorthand was ...

		Mucherwa Oliver Ngoni, Zimbabwe
	Avoiding Anchoring in Strategic Decision Making @Nhlanhla Sibisi: but how do you define 'experien...

		Tom Wilson HR Consultant, United States
	AB is a Characteristic of the Self-organizing Mind @Mucherwa Oliver Ngoni: You have probably seen tha...

		Paramathmuni srinivas Kumar India
	Irrational Elements Can Educated @Tom Wilson: The irrational elements of the mind c...

		Tom Wilson HR Consultant, United States
	The Unconscious Can Be Enriched Through Experiential Training @Srinivas: I agree completely. As you say, that is...

		Paramathmuni srinivas Kumar India
	Role of Good Association @Tom Wilson: Does good association help with disas...

		Tom Wilson HR Consultant, United States
	Dissociation and Good Association @Srinivas: This is getting a bit beyond my pay gra...

		shashinhale Wanna Project Manager, Tanzania
	Decision Making, Age Contribute to Biasness I'm sorry to say that "the older people become, th...

		Jorge Garrido, Mexico
	How do You Prevent Anchoring Bias (AB) from Occurring When Making Strategic Decisions in your Organization and if You Can`t How do You Counter These Severe Side Effects? A lot of executives never played in a team when th...

		Satya Nistala India
	Anchored Bias or Anchoring Bias. How to Avoid it? The question is: Are we anchored and thus make bia...

		Tom Wilson HR Consultant, United States
	Action as Meditation @Satya Nistala: While I agree with you in the main...

		Paramathmuni srinivas Kumar India
	The Effect of Yoga on Avoiding Anchoring Bias There is a knowledge body which is called kriya yo...