Military Answer to Abductive Reasoning
Andrew Blaine, Business Consultant, South Africa
Almost every decision that management has to make involves the consideration of variable factors that cannot be definitively quantified. For example, it is generally impossible to anticipate revenue streams - they can only be approximated. This situation also applies in the military sphere e.g., one side never knows completely how the other is deployed.
To minimise the risk in military decision making, the "Appreciation of the Situation
" has been developed. After years of use it has been found relevant to many varied situations. It follows the process below:
1. Identify all factors that influence the situation;
2. Examine each factor in detail, making deductions from each point raised in each factor;
3. Consolidate your deductions drawn and, from these, derive a few conclusions;
4. From these conclusions derive all options open to resolve the situation;
5. Consider each option and select the best available;
6. Plan using your choice as skeleton.