Technological Forecasting

Knowledge Center

Summary, forum, best practices, expert tips and information sources.

8 items • 25.842 visits


What is Technological Forecasting? Meaning.

Technological Forecasting is the methodology and practice of predicting the future state of technology and the extent of its use. It includes all efforts to project technological capabilities and to predict the intervention and spread of technological innovations. It can be used to see how close an existing technology may be to the end of its life, to identify competing new technologies still in their infancy, and to provide insights into possible adoption rates of the new technology.

The facts of the past provide the raw materials from which the mind makes estimates of the future. All forecasts are opinions of the future (some more carefully formulated than others). The act of making a forecast is the expression of an opinion. To be successful, often some level of Lateral Thinking is useful. An extreme form of this is Genius Forecasting. Science Fiction writers have sometimes described new technologies with uncanny accuracy.

There are many examples where intelligent people have been remarkable successful at predicting the future. There are also many examples of wrong forecasts. The weakness in genius forecasting is that its impossible to recognize a good forecast until the forecast has come to pass.

Some psychic individuals are said to be capable of producing consistently accurate forecasts. Mainstream science generally ignores this fact because the implications are simply to difficult to accept. Our current understanding of reality is not adequate to explain this phenomena.

More common tools that are used include the Delphi Method, Dialectical Inquiry, Brainstorming, Mind Mapping, Regression Analysis, TRIZ, Analogical Reasoning, and Scenario Planning.

During technology forecasting, the risks of Groupthink, the Spiral of Silence and also Cognitive Bias should be avoided. When a major technological breakthrough does occur, it takes conviction and courage to accept the implications of the finding. Even when the truth is staring us in the face, we often have difficulty accepting its implications.

Special Interest Group


Technological Forecasting Special Interest Group.

Special Interest Group (64 members)


New Topic

Forum about Technological Forecasting.

🔥 NEW Technological Forecasting Cases and Examples
Hi, do you know of a remarkable case or an interesting example of the use of technological forecasting?
Please share (...)

Start a new forum topic about Technological Forecasting.


Best Practices

The top-rated topics about Technological Forecasting. Here you will find the most valuable ideas and practical suggestions.

Expert Tips

Advanced insights about Technological Forecasting. Here you will find professional advices by experts.

Information Sources

Various sources of information regarding Technological Forecasting. Here you will find powerpoints, videos, news, etc. to use in your own lectures and workshops.

Research Links

Automatically jump to further useful sources regarding Technological Forecasting.

News Videos Presentations Books More






Compare with: Disruptive Innovation  |  Bounded Rationality  |  Causal Ambiguity  |  Stage-Gate

Special Interest Group

Do you have a keen interest in Technological Forecasting? Become our SIG Leader


Return to Management Hub: Decision-making & Valuation  |  Knowledge & Intangibles  |  Strategy & Innovation

More on Management  |  Return to Management Dictionary


This ends our Technological Forecasting summary and forum.

About 12manage | Advertising | Link to us / Cite us | Privacy | Suggestions | Terms of Service
2021 12manage - The Executive Fast Track. V15.8 - Last updated: 3-12-2021. All names of their owners.