Strategic Risk Management[战略风险管理]
(Slywotzky德理)

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对具有重大战略影响的外部事件、发展趋势进行预测和管理。 Slywotzky和Drzik的Strategic Risk Management[战略风险管理]解析。 (‘05)

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什么是战略风险管理? 释义

虽然Adrian J. Slywotzky和John Drzik of Mercer并没有直接提出战略风险管理(Strategic Risk Management SRM)这一术语,但是他们在2005年5月号的《哈佛商业评论》上发表的《抗击最大的风险》(Countering the Biggest Risk of All)无疑为描述这一理论做出了巨大的贡献。 战略风险管理是一项战略风险管理技术,能够运用系统的技术手段来管理对企业成长轨迹、股东价值有巨大危害的战略风险。


二位作者区分出如下七大类战略风险,每大类下又分别描述了特具危险性的情况 (斜体字部分为典型的应对措施):

  1. 行业风险(Industry
    • 利润变薄 - 转移竞争/加强合作
    • 研发费用升高 / 开支加剧
    • 超负荷
    • 大众普及化
    • 政府解除管制
    • 供应商力量提升
    • 商业周期极端短暂
  2. 技术风险(Technology
    • 技术更新换代 - 两面下注
    • 专利过期
    • 流程过时
  3. 品牌风险(Brand
    • 侵蚀 - 重新界定品牌投资的范围,并进行再投资
    • 崩溃
  4. 竞争者风险(Competitor
    • 出现具有全球竞争性的对手
    • 逐渐蚕食市场份额
    • 独一无二的竞争对手 - 创造新的业务模式,减少与这类对手的业务重叠
  5. 顾客风险(Customer
    • 顾客偏好转移 - 进行快速的、经济的市场试验,收集和分析顾客信息
    • 顾客力量提升
    • 过分依赖于有限的几个顾客
  6. 项目风险(Project - 运用聪明定序法、超额选择法,以及继石法等项目风险规避法
    • 研发失败
    • IT失败
    • 业务开发失败
    • 并购失败
  7. 发展停滞风险(Stagnation
    • 销量增长停滞或下降 - 需求创新
    • 销量上升,价格下跌
    • 渠道脆弱

: 一些财务风险、运营风险以及危险事故可能亦会成为潜在的战略风险。


战略风险管理的起源。 历史

“战略风险管理”(Strategic Risk Management)一词首次出现于Miller, Kent D.的文章《国际商业中的综合风险管理架构》(A framework for integrated risk management in international business), 该文1992年发表于《国际商业研究杂志》(Journal of International Business Studies)的第23卷第2册上。


Miller指出了企业对于战略环境不确定性的五种一般反应:规避(Being avoidance)、控制(Control)、合作(Cooperation)、模仿(Imitation)以及适应(Flexibility

  1. 不确定性规避发生于当管理者认为与给定产品或市场相关联的风险是不可接受的。 对于一个公司来说,如果已经运作于一个高度不确定性的市场环境,不确定性规避则表现为剥离一部分特殊的资产,以适应这个市场的需要。 对于还未进入不确定性市场环境的公司来说,不确定性规避则表现为推迟进入市场,直至不确定性降低至可以接受的水平。
  2. 公司可能也可以通过控制关键性的意外环境变化来降低不确定性。 管理人员这里在事先安排好的到设法控制不定的可变物而不是被动地对待不确定性作为之内他们必须经营的限制在。 控制战略的具体措施包括:
    • 政治活动(如对法律、规章、贸易限制等进行游说),
    • 获取市场力量,
    • 以及采取战略行动,威胁竞争对手进入更易预测的行为模式。
  3. 合作反应与控制反应不同,因为他们为了降低战略环境的不确定性,介入了多边合作而不是单边控制。 运用合作手段来进行不确定性管理,是企业相互依赖程度逐渐提升和企业协调组织治理权不断下降的结果。 合作战略包括:
    • 与供应商或客户的长期合约,
    • 志愿性竞争限制条件,
    • 联盟或合资,
    • 特许经营,
    • 技术使用协定,
    • 参与行业公会。
  4. 公司亦可通过模仿竞争对手的战略来应对不确定性。 这种方法最终可能导致行业内各竞争对手实现协调一致。 但是,这一协调的基础与控制或合作战略下的协调有着明显区别, 在此情况下,没有直接的控制或合作机制。 而且,竞争对手的模仿行为很容易被行业领袖预测到,因为竞争者的模仿与行业领袖的战略行动只是存在一个时间差而已。 模仿战略(亦称为“行业领袖行动追随战略”)一般包括价格模仿战略和产品模仿战略。
    对产品和流程技术进行模仿,对一些行业来说可能是比较可行的低成本战略[Mansfield, Schwartz & Wagner,1981]。 但是,在应付竞争对手的不确定的潜在技术优势时,这一战略就不那么灵验了[Lippman & Rumelt,1982]。
  5. 面对不确定性环境的第五中战略反应是提高组织适应性。 不同于控制与合作战略——它们旨在提高组织对外部不确定性环境的预测能力,适应性战略反应旨在提高组织的内在反应能力。 而对于外部因素的预测能力则保持不变。 战略管理文献中关于适应性战略引用最多的例子就是,产品多元化和地域市场多元化。 多元化战略通过同时采用多条产品线或进入多个不同市场,以此来规避风险,与此同时,市场回报较之单独开发最为相关的产品或市场也要有所减少。

战略风险管理的运用。 应用

战略风险管理的步骤。

  1. 风险辨识与评估(严重性、可能性、时间性,不同时间的可能性)。
  2. 风险测绘(制作战略风险图)。
  3. 风险定量(采取通用的量度标准,如经济资本风险、市场价值风险)。
  4. 风险机会辨识(公司是否能够将风险转变为机会)。
  5. 风险降低行动方案规划(由风险管理团队负责)。
  6. 资本调整决策(从资本配置与资本结构两个方面着手)。

战略风险管理的优势。 优点

  • 为降低风险做出准备,确保公司运营的稳定性。
  • 如果公司在风险管理方面做得比竞争对手更出色(尤其当它们还在用传统简单的“老”办法管理风险时),则增添了一项竞争优势。
  • 战略风险管理是一项系统思考企业未来、辨识发展机会的有用工具。
  • 通过战略风险管理,公司能够将战略威胁转变为成长机会。 从战略防御转入战略进攻。
  • 战略风险管理法较之其他风险管理办法,没有那么多形式上的花哨。
  • 避免企业破产风险或者收入挥发风险。
  • 如果公司能够减少GAAP/IAS的挥发性,这意味着公司将在财务分析领域拥有较好口碑。
  • 能够更好运用企业资金,降低成本花费。
  • 提高公司的Risk-Adjusted Return on Capital[风险调整资本回报率]
  • 保护Corporate Reputation[企业声誉]
  • 使公司免于卷入司法纠纷。
  • 使公司高管们避免卷入司法诉讼,前车之鉴如安然(Enron)、泰科(Tyco)以及世界通讯(WorldCom)。

战略风险管理的局限。 缺点

  • 战略风险是只是所企业面临的四类风险中的一种 (其他三种为财务风险、运营风险以及事故灾害)。
  • 有些风险尽管能够预测和预防,仍然会发生并引起不可挽回的损失(不可抗力)。
  • 没有哪一个公司能够预期所有的风险事件。
  • 战略风险管理可不是像点箱子任务那么简单, 需要很大的投入。
  • 战略风险管理(SRM)所面临的一个主要问题是,在后安然时代,尤其是当萨班斯·奥克斯利法案(Sarbanes-Oxley)生效之后,很多公司可能会视SRM为一项迫不得已的选择,从而不能富有激情地通过积极运用SRM去提高公司的全球竞争优势,去创造更高的股东价值。

战略风险管理的假定。 条件。

  • 对于未来的风险所有准备是可能的。
  • 风险准备也是有效的。
  • 并且有可能将风险转化为机会。

战略风险管理论坛
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  How to manage Unavoidable Risks?
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  SRM Experiences and Results
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  Strategic Expenditures (StratEx)
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最佳实践 - 战略风险管理 高级帐户
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How can we explain the current recession in the light of SRM? Which of above categories does this period fit into?
Does this come under uncertainties clause? How can we include risk solutions to prevent this situation from happening again?...
     
 

Expert Tips (ENG) - Strategic Risk Management 高级帐户
 

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比较: Scenario Planning[情境规划]  |  RAROC[风险调整资本回报率]  |  Game Theory[博奕论]  |  Plausibility Theory[可能性理论]  |  PEST Analysis[PEST分析]  |  Crisis Management[危机管理]  |  Real Options[实物期权]  |  CAPM[资本资产计价模型]  |  Turnaround Management[重建管理]


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