Scenario Planning[情境规划]

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为制定企业战略,准确把握未来情景。 Scenario Planning[情境规划]解析。

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Scenario Planning[情境规划]

什么是情境规划? 释义

情境规划是一项为了正确制定企业战略对外来情境进行探索的管理模型。 情景规划法通常是提出几个不同情景,对未来情形给以不同的描述,并解释由此对企业产生的影响。


荷兰皇家壳牌作为首个使用情境规划法的公司,对这一方法是这样定义的: 所谓情境,就是经过仔细构思的有关未来的不同版本的故事,它们包含了一系列易于沟通的和极富价值的主意。 情境帮助我们把未来的不确定性与我们当下必须作出的决定有机结合了起来。
 

情境规划法的运作基础是对不确定性及其影响的认识和理解,以及对未来变化的驱动力量的挖掘和把握。 情境规划法是一项团队工作,它鼓励知识交换和信息沟通,鼓励对那些影响组织未来的核心事件交换认识、促进相互的深度理解。 情境规划就是要通过不同的故事给出的不同解释,对外来进行准确描摹,努力推断出未来的不确定因素和关键性的驱动力。 这些故事,加上故事产生的过程,能够达到这样一个双重目的: 在提高参与者和组织者对外来情景感知的同时,能够丰富企业的外部环境知识。 情境规划法一般被用作战略管理工作,但亦可用于组织关于未来的讨论。


情境规划法步骤。 流程

  1. 找出组织内视野开阔的人员,组织情景规划法团队。

  2. 团队成员综合讨论,关于未来社会、经济、政治、科技等等可能发生的重大变迁。

  3. 将成员的观点进行组织联系。

  4. 挑选出一系列的最佳观点。

  5. 根据这些最佳观点,形成未来情景的草图。 对不同情境展开故事描述。

  6. 补充细节,形成有影响力的情境。 确定每个情景分别将从哪些方面影响组织。

  7. 从情境中,辨识出预警信号, 也即具体情景发生的早期标志。

  8. 对所有情景进行监控、评估和回顾。

避免落入情境规划中的一些陷阱

  1. 视情境规划法为预测法。
  2. 不同情境之间过于泾渭分明, 如乐观的情境和悲观的情境。
  3. 情境范围太广,过于宽泛。
  4. 情境未能关注那些对组织有潜在影响的因素。
  5. 把情境规划当作信息指导工具,而非组织学习和战略形成过程。
  6. 过程准备不充分。
  7. 情境中缺少有想象力的动人成分。
  8. 情境规划团队的督导人员缺乏经验。

情境规划论坛
  Exploring Possible Strategic Directions
It is a very good approach for identify two or more possible directions to judge what is right and what is wrong. By using scenario planning, we can narrow the decision making down to a smaller scope. Usually, before taking action to get a strategy p...
     
 
  Scenario Building Elements
Who can help me out with a basic structure for building future scenarios? Literature of theory around this theme is also very welcome. So what elements are relevant to use as a guideline for using future scenarios?
Thanks in advance....
     
 
  Why Scenario Planning is Important
Most companies have their methods for planning - Some good, some not so good. But most don't take time to do effective scenario planning. Do they believe it takes time off from the key activities of making money?
It's important that scenarios ar...
     
 
  Scenario Planning Instruments
For the thesis of my MBA study I'm researching the influence of culture on the succesful implementation of scenario planning in organizations. As guideline for my research I'm looking for a theory, method, instrument or model for scenario planning or...
     
 
  Uses of Scenario Planning
What exactly can we use scenario planning for? I mean what are common applications, purposes of scenario planning?...
     
 
  Decision makers disagree
One is always dealing with perceptions. One technique I have found quite useful is to populate a matrix with objective/subjective 'lens' on the one side and finance/non-finance 'impact' on the other. The subjective and non-financial quadrant is where...
     
 
  What is a Scenario? Definition
A scenario is a description of a plausible future context in which a firm might find itself. Scenarios are typically presented as a small set of stories about how the surrounding environment might have evolved into the future. They are produced by ca...
     
 
  Time Frame in Scenario Planning?
A scenario consist of a statement of an end state and a story explaining how the end state has developed, together with the underlying logic of external environment and internal forces in the industry / firm.
Did a write up on scenario planning ...
     
 
  Embracing Complexity
Scenario Planning is a strategic tool which can be used to understand or even embrace complexity, rather than avoid or neglect or scare away from it....
     
 

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Expert Tips (ENG) - Scenario Planning 高级帐户
 

Defining Feasable / Probable Scenarios

To investigate potential driving forces, you can perform a PEST analysis (Political, Economic, Society, Technology) or STEEPLE VARIANT (id + Legal, Et...
Usage (application)Finding Driving Forces for Scenario Planning
 
 
 

Change How Decision-makers See the World

A valuable insight by Pierre Wack on his pioneering work at Royal Dutch Shell was that scenarios had to connect with managers' assumptions, beliefs...
Usage (application)The Impact upon Mental Models of Decision-makers
 
 
 

Describing and Analyzing Driving Forces

Scenarios are caused by trends or driving forces. When analyzing potential trends or driving forces, for them to be relevant they must have at least o...
Usage (application)Scenario Planning
 
 
 

Four Bad Practices in Scenario Planning

Harris (2014) mentions 4 common bad practices that should be avoided when conducting scenario analysis. These are the following:
1. Mistaking ...
Usage (application)Scenario Planning, Scenaro Thinking, Scenario Analysis
 
 
 

What to do after the Scenarios have been Described?

According to Jeremy Kourdi, once you selected a relevant future scenario that you can work through to evaluate your organizations future, you should ...
Usage (application)The Next Steps to Take...
 
 
 

Transformation Scenario Planning

Transformational Scenario Planning is not about adapting to certain possible situations; rather it focuses on the participants (actors) to change them...
Usage (application)Scenario Planning, Strategic Team Collaboration
 
 
 

Why Society is More Risky than Before

In his 1992 book "  
 
 

How to Build Strategic Agility?

In order to get strategic flexibility you can use the Johnson & Johnson four-phase framework":
1. Anticipate Identify change d...
Usage (application)4 Phase Framework of Johnson & Johnson
 
 
 

Learning via the Case Method

The case method in business education has often been criticized, although it can be an appropriate and powerful approach for situations in whic...
Usage (application)Decision-making, Problem-solving
 
 
 

The Advantages of Group Decision-Making

The benefits of group decision-making include:
- Synergy: Group decisions tend to combine and improve on the knowledge of the grou...
Usage (application)Group Decision-Making
 
 
 

Taking Risk Management from Control and Compliance into a Competitive Advantage

Since events tend to be repetitive over time, many management experts support the idea that an effective risk management policy strongly takes into...
Usage (application)Strategic Risk Management
 
 
 

Align Strategy and Risk Management

In a recent white paper titled "Foundations of GRC: Enhancing Business Performance Through Risk Management", which was published by Corporate Integrit...
Usage (application)Performance-Aligned Risk Management
 
 
 

How to Link Risk Management and Strategy?

Firms practicing strategic risk management:
1. Create value by embracing risks, shaping risks, and exploiting flexibility to deliver uniqu...
Usage (application)Strategic Risk Management, Best Practices
 
 
 

3 Causes of Disagreement in Team Decision-making Processes

According to Freeman and Haskins (2014), there are three main categories of potential root causes for disagreements within teams. When such a disagree...
Usage (application)Group Decision-making, Team Decision-making, Reasons for Disagreement, 3 Fs, Group Collaboration
 
 
 

History of Scenario Planning

- The scenario planning approach was first introduced after World War II, as a tool for military planning. The U.S. Air Force searched for what its en...
Usage (application)Decision-making
 
 
 

From Scenario Planning to Scenario Thinking and Scenario Learning

Recently you can also encounter the terms scenario thinking, scenario analysis and scenario learning. These terms are reflecting the change in perspec...
Usage (application)Scenario Planning
 
 
 

How to Use Counterintuition to Fight 5 Frequent Decision Making Errors

Mauboussin describes five mistakes in decision making that are often made and result in making the wrong decisions. These five mistakes are:
1...
Usage (application)Strategic Decision Making, Dealing with Complexity, Dealing with Uncertainty, Strategy
 
 
 

Narrative-based Scenario Planning

Traditional scenario-planning generally provides a bigger picture in which trends and shocks are revealed. Such scenarios are effective in detecting t...
Usage (application)Scenario Planning, Strategic Agility, Anti-Fragility
 
 
 

Meta-cognition (Meta-thinking) in Scenario Thinking

Most businesses are primarily concerned with the type of thinking that tries to make complex problems or interconnected and multidimensional issues ma...
Usage (application)Schools of Thought, Strategic Thinking, Scenario Thinking, Strategic Assumptions, Strategic Reasoning
 
 
 

The Disadvantages of Group Decision-Making

The drawbacks of group decision-making include:
- Longer time frame: Groups generally need more time to make decisions than individ...
Usage (application)Group Decision-Making
 
 
 

Having more than 1 Team in Scenario Planning

HBR March 2007 has an interesting short article on Coevolutionary War Gaming by Alidade consultants Jeff Cares and Jim Miskel. They stress the impo...
Usage (application)Scenario Planning
 
 

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比较: Chaos Theory[混沌理论]  |  Delphi Method[德尔菲法]  |  System Dynamics[系统动力学]  |  PEST Analysis[PEST分析]  |  Stakeholder Analysis[利益相关者分析]  |  Stakeholder Mapping[利益相关者分析图]  |  Strategic Risk Management[战略风险管理]  |  Force Field Analysis[力场分析法]  |  Real Options[实物期权]  |  Mind Mapping[心智图法]  |  Brainstorming[头脑风暴法]  |  Analogical Strategic Reasoning[战略类推]  |  Plausibility Theory[可能性理论]  |  Game Theory[博奕论]  |  Root Cause Analysis[根本原因分析]  |  Dialectical Inquiry[辩证探询法]  |  OODA Loop[包以德循环]  |  Contingency Theory[权变理论]  |  Six Thinking Hats[六项思考帽]


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