Scenario Planning

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Aprendizagem sobre o futuro em que uma estratégia corporativo é dada forma. Explanação de Scenario Planning.

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Scenario Planning

Que é Scenario Planning? Descrição

Scenario Planning é um modelo que possa ser usado explorar e aprender o futuro em que uma estratégia corporativo é dada forma. Trabalha descrevendo um pequeno número de scenarios, criando histórias como o futuro pode unfold, e como este pode afetar uma edição que confronte o corporaçõ.


O escudo holandês real, um dos primeiros usuários, define scenarios como segue: Os Scenarios são histórias com cuidado crafted sobre o futuro que embodying uma variedade larga das idéias e que integra as em uma maneira que seja communicable e útil. Os Scenarios ajudam-nos ligar incertezas sobre o futuro às decisões que nós devemos fazer hoje.
 

O método do planeamento de scenario trabalha compreendendo a natureza e o impacto das forças dirigindo as mais incertas e as mais importantes que afetam o futuro. É um processo do grupo que incentive a troca do conhecimento e o desenvolvimento da compreensão mais profunda mútua das edições centrais que são importantes para o futuro de seu negócio. O objetivo é criar e craft um número de histórias diverging por forças dirigindo incertas e pesadamente influenciando extrapolating. As histórias, mais os processos para criar-los, têm um alvo duplo: para aumentar o conhecimento das circunstâncias de negócio e para alargar o receptor e a percepção do participant de eventos futuros possíveis. O método é usado o mais extensamente como uma ferramenta de gerência estratégica, mas é usado também para a discussão permitir do grupo sobre um futuro comum.


Etapas em Scenario Planning. Processo

  1. Identifique os povos que contribuirão uma escala larga dos perspectives.

  2. Entrevistas detalhadas/oficina sobre como os participants vêem deslocamentos grandes vir na sociedade, na economia, na política, na tecnologia, etc.

  3. Agrupe (conjunto) estas vistas em testes padrões conectados.

  4. O grupo extrai uma lista das prioridades (as mais melhores idéias).

  5. Criar os retratos ásperos do futuro, baseados nestas prioridades. Histórias e scenarios ásperos.

  6. Adicione um detalhe mais adicional para começar scenarios do impacto. Determine em que maneira cada scenario afetará o corporaçõ.

  7. Identifique sinais de advertência adiantados. Coisas que são indicativas para que um scenario particular unfold.

  8. Os scenarios são monitorados, avaliados e revistos.

Algumas armadilhas a evitar em Scenario Planning

  1. Tratando scenarios como previsões.
  2. Construindo os scenarios baseados em uma diferença demasiado simplistic. Como optimistic e pessimistic.
  3. Não fazem o scenario global bastante no espaço.
  4. Não focalizam os scenarios nas áreas de impacto potencial na empresa.
  5. Tratando scenarios como uma ferramenta informativa ou instrutiva melhor que para a formação participative da aprendizagem e/ou da estratégia.
  6. Não tendo um processo adequado para acoplar equipes da gerência no processo do planeamento de scenario.
  7. Não põe bastante stimulus imaginative no scenario projeta.
  8. Não usando um facilitator experiente.

Fórum de Scenario Planning
  Exploring Possible Strategic Directions
It is a very good approach for identify two or more possible directions to judge what is right and what is wrong. By using scenario planning, we can narrow the decision making down to a smaller scope. Usually, before taking action to get a strategy p...
     
 
  Scenario Building Elements
Who can help me out with a basic structure for building future scenarios? Literature of theory around this theme is also very welcome. So what elements are relevant to use as a guideline for using future scenarios?
Thanks in advance....
     
 
  Why Scenario Planning is Important
Most companies have their methods for planning - Some good, some not so good. But most don't take time to do effective scenario planning. Do they believe it takes time off from the key activities of making money?
It's important that scenarios ar...
     
 
  Scenario Planning Instruments
For the thesis of my MBA study I'm researching the influence of culture on the succesful implementation of scenario planning in organizations. As guideline for my research I'm looking for a theory, method, instrument or model for scenario planning or...
     
 
  Uses of Scenario Planning
What exactly can we use scenario planning for? I mean what are common applications, purposes of scenario planning?...
     
 
  Decision makers disagree
One is always dealing with perceptions. One technique I have found quite useful is to populate a matrix with objective/subjective 'lens' on the one side and finance/non-finance 'impact' on the other. The subjective and non-financial quadrant is where...
     
 
  What is a Scenario? Definition
A scenario is a description of a plausible future context in which a firm might find itself. Scenarios are typically presented as a small set of stories about how the surrounding environment might have evolved into the future. They are produced by ca...
     
 
  Time Frame in Scenario Planning?
A scenario consist of a statement of an end state and a story explaining how the end state has developed, together with the underlying logic of external environment and internal forces in the industry / firm.
Did a write up on scenario planning ...
     
 
  Embracing Complexity
Scenario Planning is a strategic tool which can be used to understand or even embrace complexity, rather than avoid or neglect or scare away from it....
     
 

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Melhores Práticas - Scenario Planning Premium

Expert Tips (ENG) - Scenario Planning Premium
 

Defining Feasable / Probable Scenarios

To investigate potential driving forces, you can perform a PEST analysis (Political, Economic, Society, Technology) or STEEPLE VARIANT (id + Legal, Et...
Usage (application): Finding Driving Forces for Scenario Planning
 
 
 

Change How Decision-makers See the World

A valuable insight by Pierre Wack on his pioneering work at Royal Dutch Shell was that scenarios had to connect with managers' assumptions, beliefs...
Usage (application): The Impact upon Mental Models of Decision-makers
 
 
 

Describing and Analyzing Driving Forces

Scenarios are caused by trends or driving forces. When analyzing potential trends or driving forces, for them to be relevant they must have at least o...
Usage (application): Scenario Planning
 
 
 

Four Bad Practices in Scenario Planning

Harris (2014) mentions 4 common bad practices that should be avoided when conducting scenario analysis. These are the following:
1. Mistaking ...
Usage (application): Scenario Planning, Scenaro Thinking, Scenario Analysis
 
 
 

What to do after the Scenarios have been Described?

According to Jeremy Kourdi, once you selected a relevant future scenario that you can work through to evaluate your organization’s future, you should ...
Usage (application): The Next Steps to Take...
 
 
 

Transformation Scenario Planning

Transformational Scenario Planning is not about adapting to certain possible situations; rather it focuses on the participants (actors) to change them...
Usage (application): Scenario Planning, Strategic Team Collaboration
 
 
 

Why Society is More Risky than Before

In his 1992 book "  
 
 

How to Build Strategic Agility?

In order to get strategic flexibility you can use the Johnson & Johnson “four-phase framework":
1. “Anticipate” – Identify change d...
Usage (application): 4 Phase Framework of Johnson & Johnson
 
 
 

Learning via the Case Method

The case method in business education has often been criticized, although it can be an appropriate and powerful approach for situations in whic...
Usage (application): Decision-making, Problem-solving
 
 
 

The Advantages of Group Decision-Making

The benefits of group decision-making include:
- Synergy: Group decisions tend to combine and improve on the knowledge of the grou...
Usage (application): Group Decision-Making
 
 
 

Taking Risk Management from Control and Compliance into a Competitive Advantage

Since events tend to be repetitive over time, many management experts support the idea that an effective risk management policy strongly takes into...
Usage (application): Strategic Risk Management
 
 
 

Align Strategy and Risk Management

In a recent white paper titled "Foundations of GRC: Enhancing Business Performance Through Risk Management", which was published by Corporate Integrit...
Usage (application): Performance-Aligned Risk Management
 
 
 

How to Link Risk Management and Strategy?

Firms practicing strategic risk management:
1. Create value by embracing risks, shaping risks, and exploiting flexibility to deliver uniqu...
Usage (application): Strategic Risk Management, Best Practices
 
 
 

3 Causes of Disagreement in Team Decision-making Processes

According to Freeman and Haskins (2014), there are three main categories of potential root causes for disagreements within teams. When such a disagree...
Usage (application): Group Decision-making, Team Decision-making, Reasons for Disagreement, 3 Fs, Group Collaboration
 
 
 

History of Scenario Planning

- The scenario planning approach was first introduced after World War II, as a tool for military planning. The U.S. Air Force searched for what its en...
Usage (application): Decision-making
 
 
 

From Scenario Planning to Scenario Thinking and Scenario Learning

Recently you can also encounter the terms scenario thinking, scenario analysis and scenario learning. These terms are reflecting the change in perspec...
Usage (application): Scenario Planning
 
 
 

How to Use Counterintuition to Fight 5 Frequent Decision Making Errors

Mauboussin describes five mistakes in decision making that are often made and result in making the wrong decisions. These five mistakes are:
1...
Usage (application): Strategic Decision Making, Dealing with Complexity, Dealing with Uncertainty, Strategy
 
 
 

Narrative-based Scenario Planning

Traditional scenario-planning generally provides a bigger picture in which trends and shocks are revealed. Such scenarios are effective in detecting t...
Usage (application): Scenario Planning, Strategic Agility, Anti-Fragility
 
 
 

Meta-cognition (Meta-thinking) in Scenario Thinking

Most businesses are primarily concerned with the type of thinking that tries to make complex problems or interconnected and multidimensional issues ma...
Usage (application): Schools of Thought, Strategic Thinking, Scenario Thinking, Strategic Assumptions, Strategic Reasoning
 
 
 

The Disadvantages of Group Decision-Making

The drawbacks of group decision-making include:
- Longer time frame: Groups generally need more time to make decisions than individ...
Usage (application): Group Decision-Making
 
 
 

Having more than 1 Team in Scenario Planning

HBR March 2007 has an interesting short article on Coevolutionary War Gaming by Alidade consultants Jeff Cares and Jim Miskel. They stress the impo...
Usage (application): Scenario Planning
 
 

Recursos - Scenario Planning Premium
 

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Relacionado a Scenario Planning: Chaos Theory  |  Delphi Method  |  System Dynamics  |  PEST analysis  |  Stakeholder Analysis  |  Traçar de Stakeholder  |  Strategic Risk Management  |  Force Field Analysis  |  Real Options  |  Mind Mapping  |  Brainstorming  |  Analogical Strategic Reasoning  |  Plausibility Theory  |  Game Theory  |  Root Cause Analysis  |  Dialectical Inquiry  |  OODA Loop  |  ContingencyTheory  |  Six Thinking Hats


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