Scenario Planning



企業戦略が形作られる未来についての学習。 Scenario Planningの説明。


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Scenario Planning

Scenario Planningは何であるか。 記述

Scenario Planningは企業戦略が形作られる未来を探検し、学ぶのに使用することができるモデルである。 それは少数のシナリオの記述によって物語の創造によって未来がいかに開くかもしれない、そしていかにこれが株式会社に直面する問題に影響を与えるかもしれないか、働く。

次の通り高貴なオランダの貝、最初の採用者の1は、シナリオを定義する: シナリオは色々考えを具体化し、伝染性および有用の方法で統合する未来についての注意深く制作された物語である。 シナリオは私達が私達が今日作らなければならない決定に未来についての不確実性をつなぐのを助ける。

シナリオ計画方法は未来に影響を与える最も不確かで、最も重要な原動力の性質そして影響の理解によって働く。 あなたのビジネスの未来にとって重要の中央問題の相互深い理解の知識交換そして開発を奨励するのはグループプロセスである。 目的は外挿法で推定する不確かな、重く影響を及ぼす原動力によっていくつかの分岐物語を創造し、制作することである。 それらを創造するプロセスと物語に、二重目標がある: 景気環境の知識を高め、可能な未来のでき事の受信機そして関係者の認識を両方広げるため。 方法は戦略的な管理ツールとして最も広く利用されているが、また共通の未来についての可能にするな集団討論のために使用される。

Scenario Planningのステップ。 プロセス

  1. 見通しの広い範囲を貢献する人々を識別しなさい。

  2. 関係者が大きい転位を社会、経済学、政治、技術、等入って来いかにについての見るか広範囲のインタビューか研修会。

  3. 接続されたパターンに(集り)これらの意見を分けなさい。

  4. グループは優先事項(最もよい考え)のリストを引出す。

  5. これらの優先事項に基づいて未来の荒い映像を、創造しなさい。 物語および荒いシナリオ。

  6. 影響のシナリオを得るためにそれ以上の細部を加えなさい。 どんな方法で各シナリオが株式会社に影響を与えるか定めなさい。

  7. 早期警報信号を識別しなさい。 開くために特定のシナリオのために表している事。

  8. シナリオは監視され、評価され、そして見直される。

Scenario Planningで避けるべきあるトラップ

  1. シナリオを予測として扱う。
  2. 余りに単純化した相違に基づくシナリオを組み立てる。 楽観的および悲観的のような。
  3. シナリオを規模で十分に全体的にさせないことを。
  4. 企業の潜在的影響の区域のシナリオを集中しないことを。
  5. シナリオを情報か教育用具としてよりもむしろparticipative学習および/または作戦の形成のために扱う。
  6. シナリオの計画プロセスで経営陣を従事させるための十分なプロセスを持っていない。
  7. シナリオの設計に十分な想像的な刺激を入れないことを。
  8. ないベテランの世話役を使用して。

Scenario Planning フォーラム
  Exploring Possible Strategic Directions
It is a very good approach for identify two or more possible directions to judge what is right and what is wrong. By using scenario planning, we can narrow the decision making down to a smaller scope. Usually, before taking action to get a strategy p...
  Scenario Building Elements
Who can help me out with a basic structure for building future scenarios? Literature of theory around this theme is also very welcome. So what elements are relevant to use as a guideline for using future scenarios?
Thanks in advance....
  Why Scenario Planning is Important
Most companies have their methods for planning - Some good, some not so good. But most don't take time to do effective scenario planning. Do they believe it takes time off from the key activities of making money?
It's important that scenarios ar...
  Scenario Planning Instruments
For the thesis of my MBA study I'm researching the influence of culture on the succesful implementation of scenario planning in organizations. As guideline for my research I'm looking for a theory, method, instrument or model for scenario planning or...
  Uses of Scenario Planning
What exactly can we use scenario planning for? I mean what are common applications, purposes of scenario planning?...
  Decision makers disagree
One is always dealing with perceptions. One technique I have found quite useful is to populate a matrix with objective/subjective 'lens' on the one side and finance/non-finance 'impact' on the other. The subjective and non-financial quadrant is where...
  What is a Scenario? Definition
A scenario is a description of a plausible future context in which a firm might find itself. Scenarios are typically presented as a small set of stories about how the surrounding environment might have evolved into the future. They are produced by ca...
  Time Frame in Scenario Planning?
A scenario consist of a statement of an end state and a story explaining how the end state has developed, together with the underlying logic of external environment and internal forces in the industry / firm.
Did a write up on scenario planning ...
  Embracing Complexity
Scenario Planning is a strategic tool which can be used to understand or even embrace complexity, rather than avoid or neglect or scare away from it....

Scenario Planning 特別興味グループ


Scenario Planning 教育とイベント


ベストプラクティス - Scenario Planning プレミアム

Expert Tips (ENG) - Scenario Planning プレミアム

Defining Feasable / Probable Scenarios

To investigate potential driving forces, you can perform a PEST analysis (Political, Economic, Society, Technology) or STEEPLE VARIANT (id + Legal, Et...
Usage (application)Finding Driving Forces for Scenario Planning

Change How Decision-makers See the World

A valuable insight by Pierre Wack on his pioneering work at Royal Dutch Shell was that scenarios had to connect with managers' assumptions, beliefs...
Usage (application)The Impact upon Mental Models of Decision-makers

Describing and Analyzing Driving Forces

Scenarios are caused by trends or driving forces. When analyzing potential trends or driving forces, for them to be relevant they must have at least o...
Usage (application)Scenario Planning

Four Bad Practices in Scenario Planning

Harris (2014) mentions 4 common bad practices that should be avoided when conducting scenario analysis. These are the following:
1. Mistaking ...
Usage (application)Scenario Planning, Scenaro Thinking, Scenario Analysis

What to do after the Scenarios have been Described?

According to Jeremy Kourdi, once you selected a relevant future scenario that you can work through to evaluate your organizations future, you should ...
Usage (application)The Next Steps to Take...

Transformation Scenario Planning

Transformational Scenario Planning is not about adapting to certain possible situations; rather it focuses on the participants (actors) to change them...
Usage (application)Scenario Planning, Strategic Team Collaboration

Why Society is More Risky than Before

In his 1992 book "  

How to Build Strategic Agility?

In order to get strategic flexibility you can use the Johnson & Johnson four-phase framework":
1. Anticipate Identify change d...
Usage (application)4 Phase Framework of Johnson & Johnson

Learning via the Case Method

The case method in business education has often been criticized, although it can be an appropriate and powerful approach for situations in whic...
Usage (application)Decision-making, Problem-solving

The Advantages of Group Decision-Making

The benefits of group decision-making include:
- Synergy: Group decisions tend to combine and improve on the knowledge of the grou...
Usage (application)Group Decision-Making

Taking Risk Management from Control and Compliance into a Competitive Advantage

Since events tend to be repetitive over time, many management experts support the idea that an effective risk management policy strongly takes into...
Usage (application)Strategic Risk Management

Align Strategy and Risk Management

In a recent white paper titled "Foundations of GRC: Enhancing Business Performance Through Risk Management", which was published by Corporate Integrit...
Usage (application)Performance-Aligned Risk Management

How to Link Risk Management and Strategy?

Firms practicing strategic risk management:
1. Create value by embracing risks, shaping risks, and exploiting flexibility to deliver uniqu...
Usage (application)Strategic Risk Management, Best Practices

3 Causes of Disagreement in Team Decision-making Processes

According to Freeman and Haskins (2014), there are three main categories of potential root causes for disagreements within teams. When such a disagree...
Usage (application)Group Decision-making, Team Decision-making, Reasons for Disagreement, 3 Fs, Group Collaboration

History of Scenario Planning

- The scenario planning approach was first introduced after World War II, as a tool for military planning. The U.S. Air Force searched for what its en...
Usage (application)Decision-making

From Scenario Planning to Scenario Thinking and Scenario Learning

Recently you can also encounter the terms scenario thinking, scenario analysis and scenario learning. These terms are reflecting the change in perspec...
Usage (application)Scenario Planning

How to Use Counterintuition to Fight 5 Frequent Decision Making Errors

Mauboussin describes five mistakes in decision making that are often made and result in making the wrong decisions. These five mistakes are:
Usage (application)Strategic Decision Making, Dealing with Complexity, Dealing with Uncertainty, Strategy

Narrative-based Scenario Planning

Traditional scenario-planning generally provides a bigger picture in which trends and shocks are revealed. Such scenarios are effective in detecting t...
Usage (application)Scenario Planning, Strategic Agility, Anti-Fragility

Meta-cognition (Meta-thinking) in Scenario Thinking

Most businesses are primarily concerned with the type of thinking that tries to make complex problems or interconnected and multidimensional issues ma...
Usage (application)Schools of Thought, Strategic Thinking, Scenario Thinking, Strategic Assumptions, Strategic Reasoning

The Disadvantages of Group Decision-Making

The drawbacks of group decision-making include:
- Longer time frame: Groups generally need more time to make decisions than individ...
Usage (application)Group Decision-Making

Having more than 1 Team in Scenario Planning

HBR March 2007 has an interesting short article on Coevolutionary War Gaming by Alidade consultants Jeff Cares and Jim Miskel. They stress the impo...
Usage (application)Scenario Planning

リソース - Scenario Planning プレミアム


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Scenario Planningに関連している: Chaos Theory  |  Delphi Method  |  System Dynamics  |  PEST analysis  |  Stakeholder Analysis  |  stakeholderの地図を描くこと  |  Strategic Risk Management  |  Force Field Analysis  |  Real Options  |  Mind Mapping  |  Brainstorming  |  Analogical Strategic Reasoning  |  Plausibility Theory  |  Game Theory  |  Root Cause Analysis  |  Dialectical Inquiry  |  OODA Loop  |  ContingencyTheory  |  Six Thinking Hats

経営ハブに戻る: コミュニケーションとスキル方針決定と評価マーケティング  |  戦略


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版権 2016 12manage - 幹部ファーストトラック。V14.1 - 最近の更新: 27-9-2016。所有者別の全 tm 名。