Real Options[实物期权] (Luehrman)

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视战略投资为金融期权。 Timothy A. Luehrman的Real Options[实质选择权]解析。 (‘98)

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什么是实物期权? 释义

在公司面临不确定性的市场环境下,实物期权的价值来源于公司战略决策的相应调整。 每一个公司都是通过不同的投资组合,确定自己的实物期权,并对其进行管理、运作,从而为股东创造价值。 实物期权法应用金融期权理论,给出动态管理的定量价值,从而将不确定性转变成企业的优势。


最初用金融期权理论来审视战略投资的想法源于Timothy A. Luehrman发表在哈佛商业评论上的两篇文章: 《视投资机会为实物期权:从数字出发》(Investment Opportunities as Real Options:Getting Started on the Numbers,1998年7-8月刊)及 《实物期权投资组合战略》(Strategy as a Portfolio of Real Options,1998年9-10月刊)。 在后一篇文章中,Luehrman写道, “用金融观点来看,企业投资更似一系列的期权,而不是稳定的现金流”。


实物期权的应用。 优点

当价值评估包含进一系列显著的不确定因素时,实物期权的不确定性、灵活性和可调整性则具有巨大的价值, 因此,实物期权法的运用非常重要。 即便是对于一般性的战略决策,实物期权也必须融入战略投资的考虑范畴。


实物期权的公式 演算

实物期权用到的主要公式是Black-Scholes期权定价模型, 期权的价值由以下各变量决定:

  • 失效期(期权期限)。

  • 不确定性程度。

  • 获取期权的成本。

  • 与一次性付清相比,潜在的现金流损失。

  • 无风险利率。

  • 未来现金流的预期现值。

通过将这些变量因素引入决策过程,实物期权法使企业能够将不确定因素转变为企业优势,同时将投资风险限定在一定范围内。


实物期权论坛
  Real Options: Measures to Cut Costs
The problem with strategic cost cutting is it is bounded from below by zero. A crisis to one is an opportunity to another if only one knows how to embrace risks....
     
 
  Real Options Applied to Rapid Labour Mobilization
In some industries, the speed of mobilization of labour coupled with the ready availability of skilled labour is a determinant of success, e.g. Oil and gas drilling when prices rise. I would be interested in any applications folks have heard about wh...
     
 
  Applicability of Real Options in Oil and Gas Field Development
How to use the real option technique for the appraisal of oil & gas field development projects?...
     
 

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最佳实践 - 实物期权 高级帐户

Expert Tips (ENG) - Real Options 高级帐户
 

How to Become a Self-tuning Enterprise: Advanced Experimenters

In an HBR article of June 2015, Reeves, Zeng and Venjara argue there's a new way to apply algorithmic principles that enables organizations to constan...
Usage (application)Organizational Agility, Strategic Agility, Real Options, Emergent Strategy
 
 
 

How to Design Experiments to Support Decision-making on Strategic Innovations

The probability of success of a major innovation is difficult to assess. Statistics and other datasets only provide information about past beha...
Usage (application)Strategic Innovation, Strategic Decision-making, Strategic Experimenting, Experiments, Strategic Testing, Innovation Tes
 
 
 

How to Link Risk Management and Strategy?

Firms practicing strategic risk management:
1. Create value by embracing risks, shaping risks, and exploiting flexibility to deliver uniqu...
Usage (application)Strategic Risk Management, Best Practices
 
 
 

Align Strategy and Risk Management

In a recent white paper titled "Foundations of GRC: Enhancing Business Performance Through Risk Management", which was published by Corporate Integrit...
Usage (application)Performance-Aligned Risk Management
 
 
 

Taking Risk Management from Control and Compliance into a Competitive Advantage

Since events tend to be repetitive over time, many management experts support the idea that an effective risk management policy strongly takes into...
Usage (application)Strategic Risk Management
 
 
 

Why Society is More Risky than Before

In his 1992 book "  
 
 

Real Options and Brand Value

A brand can be considered as a feature that allows a firm to gain a unitary profit margin higher than those of products without any brand, and a highe...
Usage (application)Exploiting Real Options
 
 

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