Real Options[实物期权] (Luehrman)



视战略投资为金融期权。 Timothy A. Luehrman的Real Options[实质选择权]解析。 (‘98)


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什么是实物期权? 释义

在公司面临不确定性的市场环境下,实物期权的价值来源于公司战略决策的相应调整。 每一个公司都是通过不同的投资组合,确定自己的实物期权,并对其进行管理、运作,从而为股东创造价值。 实物期权法应用金融期权理论,给出动态管理的定量价值,从而将不确定性转变成企业的优势。

最初用金融期权理论来审视战略投资的想法源于Timothy A. Luehrman发表在哈佛商业评论上的两篇文章: 《视投资机会为实物期权:从数字出发》(Investment Opportunities as Real Options:Getting Started on the Numbers,1998年7-8月刊)及 《实物期权投资组合战略》(Strategy as a Portfolio of Real Options,1998年9-10月刊)。 在后一篇文章中,Luehrman写道, “用金融观点来看,企业投资更似一系列的期权,而不是稳定的现金流”。

实物期权的应用。 优点

当价值评估包含进一系列显著的不确定因素时,实物期权的不确定性、灵活性和可调整性则具有巨大的价值, 因此,实物期权法的运用非常重要。 即便是对于一般性的战略决策,实物期权也必须融入战略投资的考虑范畴。

实物期权的公式 演算

实物期权用到的主要公式是Black-Scholes期权定价模型, 期权的价值由以下各变量决定:

  • 失效期(期权期限)。

  • 不确定性程度。

  • 获取期权的成本。

  • 与一次性付清相比,潜在的现金流损失。

  • 无风险利率。

  • 未来现金流的预期现值。


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实物期权 小组


实物期权 培训|活动


最佳实践 - 实物期权 高级帐户

Expert Tips (ENG) - Real Options 高级帐户

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How to Design Experiments to Support Decision-making on Strategic Innovations

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Usage (application)Strategic Innovation, Strategic Decision-making, Strategic Experimenting, Experiments, Strategic Testing, Innovation Tes

How to Link Risk Management and Strategy?

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1. Create value by embracing risks, shaping risks, and exploiting flexibility to deliver uniqu...
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Usage (application)Performance-Aligned Risk Management

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Since events tend to be repetitive over time, many management experts support the idea that an effective risk management policy strongly takes into...
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Why Society is More Risky than Before

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Real Options and Brand Value

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Usage (application)Exploiting Real Options

相关资料 - 实物期权 高级帐户


实物 期权


战略 决策


实物 期权


战略 决策


实物 期权


战略 决策


实物 期权


战略 决策

比较: Scenario Planning[情境规划]  |  RAROC[风险调整资本回报率]  |  Strategic Risk Management[战略风险管理]  |  PEST Analysis[PEST分析]  |  Analogical Strategic Reasoning[战略类推]  |  Root Cause Analysis[根本原因分析]  |  CAPM[资本资产计价模型]  |  Dialectical Inquiry[辩证探询法]  |  Plausibility Theory[可能性理论]  |  Theory of Constraints[约束理论]  |  Operations Research[运筹学]

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