 What
is Chaos Theory? Description
The Chaos Theory method from Lorenz and Poincaré is a technique that can
be used for studying complex and dynamic systems to reveal patterns of order
(non-chaos) out of seemingly chaotic behaviors.
"Chaos Theory is the qualitative study of unstable aperiodic behavior
in deterministic nonlinear dynamical systems" (Kellert, 1993, p. 2). Aperiodic
behavior is observed when there is no variable, describing the state of the
system, that undergoes a regular repetition of values. Unstable aperiodic
behavior is highly complex: it never repeats and it continues to manifest
the effects of any small perturbation.
As per the current mathematical theory a chaotic system is defined as showing
"sensitivity to initial conditions". In other words, to predict the future
state of a system with certainty, you need to know the initial conditions
with infinite accuracy, since errors increase rapidly with even the slightest
inaccuracy.
This is why the weather is so difficult to forecast. The theory also has been
applied to business cycles, and dynamics of animal populations, as well as
in fluid motion, planetary orbits, electrical currents in semi-conductors,
medical conditions (like epileptic seizures), and the modeling of arms races.
During the 1960s Edward Lorenz, a meteorologist at MIT, worked on a
project to simulate weather patterns on a computer. He accidentally stumbled
upon the butterfly effect after deviations in calculations off by thousandths
greatly changed the simulations. The Butterfly Effect reflects how changes
on the small scale, can influence things on the large scale. It is the classic
example of chaos, where small changes may cause large changes. A butterfly,
flapping its wings in Hong Kong, may change tornado patterns in Texas.
Chaos Theory regards organizations/businesses as complex, dynamic, non-linear,
co-creative and far-from-equilibrium systems. Their future performance cannot
be predicted by past and present events and actions. In a state of chaos,
organizations behave in ways which are simultaneously both unpredictable (chaotic)
and patterned (orderly).
Origin of Chaos Theory. History
 Ilya
Prigogine, Nobel laureate, showed that complex structures could result
from simpler ones. This is like order coming from chaos. Henry Adams previously
described this with his quote "Chaos often breeds life, when order breeds
habit". Henri Poincaré was really the "Father of Chaos [Theory]," however.
The planet Neptune was discovered in 1846 and had been predicted from the
observation of deviations in Uranus' orbit. King Oscar II of Norway was willing
to give a prize to anyone who could prove or disprove that the solar system
was stable. Poincaré offered his solution, but when a friend found an error
in his calculations, the prize was taken away until he could come up with
a new solution that worked. He found that there was no solution. Not even
the laws of Sir Isaac Newton provided a solution to this huge problem. Poincaré
had been trying to find order in a system where there was none to be found.
Chaos theory was formulated during the 1960s. Significant and more practical
work was done by Edward Lorenz in the 1960s. The name chaos was coined
by Jim Yorke, an applied mathematician at the University of Maryland
(Ruelle, 1991).
Calculation of the Chaos Theory? Formula
To apply Chaos Theory, a single measured variable x(n) = x(t0 + nt) with
a starting time, t0, and a lead time, t, provides an n-dimensional space,
or phase space, that represents the full multivariate state space of the system;
up to 4 dimensions may be required to represent the phase space for a chaotic
system. Thus, over a long period of time, an observed system will develop
patterns within a nonlinear time series that can be used to predict future
states (Solomatine et al, 2001).
Usage of Chaos Theory. Applications
The principles of Chaos Theory have been successfully used to describe
and explain diverse natural and artificial phenomena. Such as:
- Predicting epileptic seizures.
- Predicting financial markets.
- Modeling of manufacturing systems.
- Making weather forecasts.
- Creating Fractals. Computer-generated images applying Chaos Theory principles.
(See figures on this page.)
In a scenario where businesses operate in a turbulent, complex and
unpredictable environment, the tenets of Chaos Theory can be extremely valuable.
Application areas can include:
Steps in Chaos Theory. Process
To control chaos, the system or process of chaos has to be controlled.
To control a system, what is needed is:
- A target, objective or goal which the system should reach. For a system
with predictable behavior (deterministic) this may be a particular state
of the system.
- A system capable of reaching the target or goal.
- Some means of influencing the system behavior. These are the control
inputs (decisions, decision rules, or initial states).
Strengths of Chaos Theory. Benefits
Chaos theory has wide applicability in modern science and technology era.
Communication and management may see a paradigm shift, as will several other
business areas. Research and study in this area by academics can be extremely
useful for the business and financial world.
Limitations of Chaos Theory. Disadvantages
The limitations of applying Chaos Theory are in due mostly from choosing
the input parameters. The methods chosen to compute these parameters depend
on the dynamics underlying the data and on the kind of analysis intended,
which is in most cases highly complex and not always accurate.
Chaos theory is not as simplistic to find an immediate and direct application
in the business environment, but mapping of the business environment using
the knowledge of chaos definitely is worthwhile studying.
Assumptions of Chaos Theory. Conditions
- Small actions produce rather large consequences, creating a chaotic
atmosphere.
Book: James Geick
- Chaos-Making a new Science -
Book: Ali Bulent
Cambel - Applied Chaos Theory : A Paradigm for Complexity -
Book: Richard Tiplady
- World of Difference -
Book: Garnett P.
Williams - Chaos Theory Tamed -
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Chaos Theory and Organisational Structure
"The number of structures (rules and regulations) determines the performance of organizations. Inversely; organizational structure is determined by by external factors.
For instance, in a complex environment a small and flexible structure is preferable, while in a stable environment a big structure is appealing.
In this regard some researchers believe that organizational structure and organizational performance have an inverse 'U' relationship.
It is important to note here that in an unpredictable environment it is always difficult to identify the optimum level of structure to enhance performance.
It is to be understood that structure influences decision making and the chain of command in organizations. Chaos takes place when an organization cannot determine the optimum level of structure that will increase its performance in an unpredictable environment. In such a situation the leadership and decision making abilities of the executives are extra important." |
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Keep your Eye on the Big Picture
"To a water molecule, whether in a glass of water or in a raging river, everything appears random and chaotic.
Thus, the only prudent way to lead, is to never, ever, lose sight of the big picture." |
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Strategies in Chaos? Consider Goldratt's Thinking Processes
"The theory of constraints thinking processes of E. Goldratt are effective generic tools useful in both normal and chaotic situations.
- Goldratt's current reality tree diagnoses the core conflicts and identifies the root problem/s that give birth to most undesirable effects experienced in a complex situation.
- The 5-focusing steps offer a constraint management technique of never ending system improvement.
- The evaporating cloud technique dissolves most complex conflicts by speciying contextualized win-win solutions.
- The future reality tree and prerequisite tree are powerful, robust, and delightfully effective planning tools.
Done right, results from theory of constraints thinking processes are practical, sustainable, overwhelming to say the least." |
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Coexistence of Chaos
"All things are relative to one another. "Chaos" is one of the ways to predict the events of a particle under observation." |
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Books on Managing Chaotic Systems
"I have read a lot of descriptions, definitions of chaotic (complex) systems. However I have not seen in the literature any proposition on how to manage or control or cope with (undesirable) chaotic systems? can any body indicate some work or publications on this subject? Or have some ideas..." |
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Is Chaos So Chaotic?
"The French mathematician Poincarre demonstrated Chaos Theory by plotting the orbit of the Earth round the Sun. He imagined a huge card at right angles to the Earth's orbit and calculated the holes punched in the card by the orbiting Earth (a bit like a target in rifle shooting) it was not possible to predict where the Earth would puncture the card. This is an example of Chaos Theory. However, the Earth still orbits around the Sun within set limits. Sometimes it is nearer the Sun other times it is further away, but where it will end up cannot be determined because of chaos yet there are limits beyond which the Earth will not stray in its orbit of the Sun. So there is some order in chaos." |
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Lord Buddha on Chaos...
"All things appear and disappear because of the concurrence of causes and conditions. Nothing ever exists entirely alone; everything is in relation to everything else." |
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Chaos Theory and the Future
"Every choice you make whether it is to drink a cup of coffee or drive to the supermarket, you are creating a reality, you are creating a chain. You choose what happens to you. If you could learn how the chaos theory works by predicting things, thus you could learn how choices and events relate to one another and you could then create a future of your own desire." |
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Implications of Chaos Theory
"We are increasingly unable to predict "infinite conditions with infinite accuracy." So we have two choices. One, we can simplify the system we manage, and try to close it off from the complexities of outside connected systems. This is unlikely to work, and impossible to work in the long term. Try dropping a pebble in a pool of water; then try to stop the waves by pushing against them. It only increases the entropy (disorder) of the system. Does this mean that chaos generates order, but resistance to chaos creates disorder? I hope so, because our only other available management strategy (since we can't predict and we can't control) is to learn to ride the tiger. It's a wild ride. And the more interconnected all our planet's systems become, and the larger and more complex each independent system grows, the wilder it's gonna get. If leaders base their legitimacy on their ability to predict which way the tiger is going to turn, they'll be leaders for a very brief time." |
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Chaos Theory in Relationships
"Hi I do not get along with a relative, in fact we used to live together in same house but we have not spoken now for a good few years. Recently we spoke on the phone and she said to me that the reason we do not get along is because we both "buy" into the chaos theory. She is a psychologist by profession.
Her partner is an astro-physicist by profession so I am unsure whether chaos theory cud be related to psychology or to physics anyway I'd be most grateful if anyone cud shed some light on this as it is an important relationship which is not working, thanks." |
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High Performance Teams
"Based on chaos theory, Dr. Marcial Losada has developed a method to improve High Performance Teams and has established the "Losada Line" using non linear mathematics. The results are much more efective than our typical linear way of thinking. It really works!" |
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The Butterfly effect
"I'm a true chaos believer.
I'm not a scientist but I think the great solutions for our planet depend on a new way of thinking about changes and effects.
The planet climates are changing in a way that could be fatal for human kind. The deterministic theories are in failure for the problem solving.
I think we've to introduce new variables on the system in a way that can actively change the process of climate degradation.
I don't know how to, but I have some ideas, crazy ones I believe.
I'd like to see hypothetical solutions on this matters." |
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Quotes on Chaos Theory
"Do you know some deep, famous or funny quotes on Chaos Theory? Quotations? Proverbs? Please share them as a reaction to this posting and mention the author. To get started, here's my favorite: 'Chaos often breeds life, when order breeds habit.' - Henry Brooks Adams 1838-1919, American writer and historian" |
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Internal and external chaos
"Note that not only the circumstances INSIDE the firm can be chaotic, but also its ENVIRONMENT, and even the RELATIONSHIPS between markets and organizations can be nonlinear. Tetenbaum (Shifting Paradigms: From Newton to Chaos, Organizational Dynamics, 1998, #26) presented six major forces that create this nonlinear world: technology, globalization, competition, speed, complexity, and paradox." |
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Using Chaos Theory to Achieve a Desired Outcome
"How does one start using chaos theory to achieve a desired outcome? I can think of using an attractor for defining the result and I can use a force field diagram to describe the change I want.
However, how do I then use chaos theory to map what will happen? Or, am I applying the theory wrongly?" |
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Chaos Theory Special Interest Group
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Chaos Theory Education & Events
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Compare with Chaos Theory:
Catastrophe Theory
| Causal Model of Organizational
Performance and Change |
Game Theory |
Ten Schools of Thought
| Scenario Planning
| Dialectical Inquiry
| Analogical
Strategic Reasoning |
Plausibility Theory |
Spiral Dynamics |
Organization Chart |
Centralization and Decentralization
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