Bass Diffusion Model

Knowledge Center


Predicting Innovation Curves. Explanation of Bass Diffusion Model of Frank M. Bass. ('69)


  1. Summary
  2. Forum
  3. Expert Tips
  4. Resources


12manage is the worldwide knowledge network on management.

By signing up you get full access to all knowledge centers and discussion forums, including Bass Diffusion.

Why register?

The Bass Diffusion Model on the adoption and diffusion of new products and technologies by Frank M. Bass (A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables, 1969, Management Science, 15 , 215-227) and the later extensions of diffusion theory are used for market analysis and demand forecasting of new technologies. The Bass diffusion model is one of the tools to describe, and sometimes predict, the number of purchases for new consumer durable products.

Experience from many innovations shows that the spread of a new method or concept in a market can be characterized by the Bass formula:

Bass Diffusion formula

Parameters of the Bass Diffusion Model

The three parameters of the Bass Diffusion Model to predict Nt (Number of adopters at time t) are:

  • m = the market potential; the total number of people who will eventually use the product
  • p= the coefficient of innovation (external influence); the likelihood that somebody who is not yet using the product will start using it because of mass media coverage or other external factors
  • q= the coefficient of imitation (internal influence); the likelihood that somebody who is not yet using the product will start using it because of "word-of-mouth" or other influence from those already using the product.

Standard Bass curve for the diffusion of innovationsSee the picture on the right for a typical graphic of the standard bass curve (with the average values of p and q of 0.03 and 0.38, respectively).

Usage of the Bass Diffusion Model

Bass diffusion theory is simple enough to allow a first assessment. There is no immediate need for further complex modeling. However care must be taken as the standard model is only one of the many models of technology diffusion. Many variations on the Bass Diffusion Model have been developed over time, often claiming further precision or applicability for certain circumstances.

The dynamics of the innovation uptake curves, and how the technology or its application diffuse into the market, is a crucial analytic tool when assessing the business case for internal or external investments in new technologies. For early stage investments or internal business cases for new products, it is essential to have some understanding of the likely diffusion of the technology. By not having a mental model to test against reality, the amount of capital, time to market and the window of opportunity can be grossly misjudged. Diffusion of innovation models are important tools for effectively assessing the merits of investing in technologies that are new or novel and do not have prima facie, predictable patterns of user up-take.

Bass Diffusion Forum (5 topics) Help
To get access to this forum, you need to be a member: Please log in... | Register
  How is Bass Curve Model Different from Product Life Cycle
I can not find considerable differences in between the Bass Curve and the Product Life Cycle. Please advise......

Calculating and Predicting a Product Life Cycle

If we had to determine the life cycle of a product how can it be done. What quantitative variables should we take in consideration for calculating the same and why?...

External / Internal Influence Model

Why is the Bass Model also called "external internal influence model"?...

Alternate Bass Model Formula

The Bass model can (I think) be written as:
New Cust =
Innovation * (Population - Customers) +
Immitation * Customers +
Imitation * (Customers * Customers) / population.
It is easy to explain the first two terms in lay terms...

Calculating Nt-1 in Bass | Calculating m, p and q in the Bass Model

How do you calculate Nt-1 in the Bass formula?...
Start a new discussion: Please log in... | Register

Bass Diffusion Special Interest Group

Special Interest Group

Bass Diffusion Education & Events

Find Trainings, Seminars and Events

Expert Tips - Bass Diffusion Premium
Discover and utilize expert tips per method: Please log in... | Register

Innovation Pitfalls

Avoiding Innovation Traps

Limitations of Bass Diffusion

Diffusion of new Technology

Social Persuasion: Determining the Potential of Social Influencers

Social Media Marketing, Social Influence, Opinion Leadership

Why Some Technology Revolutions Take Off and Others Don't

Adoption of New Technologies

Resources - Bass Diffusion Premium
Access presentations, news and videos on each method: Please log in... | Register

On the Bass diffusion theory. 4 Versions On the Bass Diffusion Theory

Four Versions of BD

Opinion Leadership, Worth-Of-Mouth and Buzz Marketing

Opinion Leadership, Buzz Marketing, Worth-Of-Mouth Communication, Cool Hunting

Extended Bass Diffusion Model

Cross-country Diffusion of New Products

Marketing Research: Introduction and Techniques

Marketing Research, Qualitative Marketing Research Methods, Research Experiments

Product Life Cycle (PLC) versus Bass Diffusion

Product Management, Decision Making


Bass Diffusion


Diffusion Model


Bass Diffusion


Diffusion Model


Bass Diffusion


Diffusion Model


Bass Diffusion


Diffusion Model

Compare with the bass diffusion model:  Innovation Adoption Curve (Rogers)  |  Product Life Cycle  |  BCG Matrix  |  ADL Matrix  |  Positioning  |  STRATPORT  |  Profit Pools  |  Marketing Mix  |  Four Trajectories of Industry Change  |  Disruptive Innovation

Return to Management Hub: Decision-making & Valuation  |  Finance & Investing  |  Knowledge & Intangibles  |  Marketing

More Management Methods, Models and Theory

Sponsor this knowledge center

Special Interest Group Leader
Expert? Become our Bass Diffusion SIG Leader.

All you need to know about management

12manage for:

Management Smart Card

12manage in:

The perfect souvenir for your education program

Copyright 2015 12manage - The Executive Fast Track. V14.0 - Last updated: 9-10-2015. All names tm by their owners.