The Past as a Predictor of the Future

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The Past as a Predictor of the Future
Roselynn Omolloh, Career Consultant, Kenya

The main thesis of the Black Swan is true to the extent that people use the past to predict the future, not because it is true, but because it is easier.
In Kenya, there seems to be a currency plunge every 5th year and this almost always sees the dollar gain ground over the shilling.
The truth is not that the economy performs dismally every 5 years but rather, that this expectation is sustained by those who stand to benefit.
With global financial crisis as witnessed these past few days (End of October 2011), those who used to benefit from this venture should now look for a new cash cow, because Kenyans have now known.



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