Time Frame in Scenario Planning?

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Time Frame in Scenario Planning?
Ade, Supply chain Analyst, United Kingdom

A scenario consist of a statement of an end state and a story explaining how the end state has developed, together with the underlying logic of external environment and internal forces in the industry / firm.
Did a write up on scenario planning but got it confused at a point with forecasting through provision of historical data... Found it kind of convenient to predict the future based on the occurences in the past.
I would appreciate if someone that has a hands on experience of scenario planning explains, how do you arrive at the time frame determination and how specific are their scenarios about the future. Many thanks, Ade

Scenario Planning Criteria
Jozef, Netherlands
A scenario always has an end stage and a begin stage. In between are either steps or a continuum, say “stages”. Every stage always has 4 dimensions: time, place, quality and quantity.
When comparing scenario’s, write down the criteria first. Vary only ONE dimension per scenario, thus avoiding results that can not be tracked down to a singe variable. Painstaking labour? Yes. Profitable? Often!

Scenario Planning and Story Telling
Feigelbinder, Germany
It's a good idea to combine Scenario Planning with Story Telling.

Scenario Plannning - avoid forecasting
Greg Kington, USA
One way to avoid forecasting is to explain at the beginning that no-one knows the future.
And that the purpose of scenario planning is NOT to forecast, but to expand thinking about how current trends, if they continue, COULD affect the business environment and how the business might BEGIN acting today in order to best take advantage of the opportunities presented in the each scenario at the target scenario date.
One part of the exercise is to attempt to develop indicators for each plausible scenario in order to know which one (if any) actually comes about. The trick is finding senior execs who will make sure the scenario plan is not put away in a file and ignored, but regularly updated. Good luck!


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